Nine “No Brainer” Player Prop Bets for Today: Sharp, Profitable Sports Betting Picks

In this betting preview, I’ll be going through nine “no brainer” player props for today. I have picks on Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks.

If you’re new to profitable betting strategy, then I recommend reading this short article about how PrizePicks & Underdog Fantasy work. Before trying to beat these platforms (e.g. make money), it is essential to understand their payout structure. Don’t go to war (e.g. try to beat books) without your weapons (e.g. knowledge).

Again, I’m a trader & a sports bettor, but definitely not a great writer. If you have questions about profitable betting strategy, then feel free to email us at [email protected]!

PrizePicks Flex Play: 6 Sharp Player Props

On PrizePicks, I typically lean to bet 5 pick or 6 pick Flex Play entries. Today, I have a 6 pick Flex Play on PrizePicks. I’m staking $80 to win $2,000.

The first play I have is from the OddsJam NHL Screen. I’m on Josh Morrissey over 2.0 Shots on Goal (SOG). As seen in the screenshot above, every sportsbook has Morrissey’s line set at 1.5 Shots on Goal. Underdog Fantasy, a direct competitor of PrizePicks (they overall work the same way), also has the line at 1.5 SOG.

PrizePicks is a clear market inefficiency. There are over 100 sportsbooks on the OddsJam Odds Screen, and they all have Morrissey’s line set at 1.5 SOG. That’s 100+ data points all telling you that PrizePicks is offering way too much value. Underdog Fantasy being at 1.5 SOG should also increase your confidence that this play is profitable.

You may be wondering…“Why does betting u2.0 vs u1.5 matter?”

Well, in his last 10 games, Morrissey has had exactly 2 shots on goal in three games. In these situations, we would have pushed on PrizePicks & lost on every sportsbook, as well as Underdog Fantasy. That’s called finding an “edge” and finding value in the market.

OddsJam is all about data-driven, mathematical sports betting. There’s no BS, no fluff. Morrissey u2.0 SOG is not a “lock” (get that word of your vocabulary!) – it’s just a play with an edge.

The NHL Screen is incredibly useful for finding these plays where sportsbooks are setting the lines at different levels (e.g. Morrissey is at 2.0 SOG on PrizePicks, but 1.5 everywhere else).

Line movements are shown on the OddsJam Screen in red & green, as seen in the screenshot above. I was able to lock in RJ Barrett under 6.0 on PrizePicks as sportsbooks moved Barrett’s rebound line lower. As seen, PrizePicks is the only bookmaker with their line set at 6.0 – Underdog Fantasy & every sportsbook is at 5.5. We have clear value on the under once again!

As I always say, more is merrier in sports betting. If you want to actually make money, then you need to get more sportsbooks, as you never know where the value will be. You also are going to want to bet on more sports. I bet on tennis, NHL, soccer and tons of other sports that I do not watch.

The sports does not matter. It’s all about finding value & finding an edge. “Sports knowledge” is BS, and it’s already priced into the market. When Lebron gets injured, sportsbooks know that… They adjust odds.

When I bet this UFC play above, every other sportsbook had Said Nurmagomedov at -130 moneyline odds.

• Do I know anything about him? No.
• Did I have “inside” information? No.
• Did I get this pick from a clueless handicapper? No.
• Could I recognize this guy on the street? No.
• Did I watch the fight? No.

I found value and an “edge” in the market. It really is that simple to make money sports betting. Don’t overcomplicate it. Because sportsbooks have different odds from one another, you can hunt through the market & finding those rare, few betting opportunities where books are “slipping” up and giving away too much value.

My next pick is from the OddsJam Positive EV Tool. This is the betting tool that I use most on OddsJam. For what it’s worth, I use the Odds Screen second most.

As seen in the screenshot above, Kevin Hayes over 2.5 Shots on Goal is -119 implied odds on PrizePicks. Every sportsbook has the line ranging from -125 to -159. This NHL player prop has a profit margin of 2.4%, as seen under the “Percent” column, so I locked it in. Once again, we’re finding value.

My six picks on PrizePicks are:

• RJ Barrett u6.0 Rebounds
• Thomas Chabor o2.0 SOG
• Josh Morrissey u2.0 SOG
• Kevin Hayes o2.5 SOG
• DeMar DeRozan u5.5 Rebounds
• Evgeni Malkin u3.0 SOG

I have player prop picks from numerous sports, so this is a “cross sport” parlay bet. All plays were found with either the Odds Screen or the EV Tool, and my PrizePicks betslip is below.

Underdog Fantasy: Three Parlay Bets

As a sharp, profitable sports bettor, my goal is to place as many profitable bets as possible on a daily basis. This reduces variance in sports betting. It’s just like why you buy an “index fund” as opposed to putting your life savings in one stock…

My first three parlay picks can be seen in the screenshot above. I’m on:

• Jordan Poole o3.5 Three Pointers
• Nazem Kadri u3.5 SOG
• Adrian Kempe o2.5 SOG

I have zero clue who those hockey players are, but guess what? It doesn’t matter. These bets have an quantifiable “edge” compared to the rest of the market, and I know I’m winning long-term. The data, the markets knows all…Sportsbooks invest hundreds of millions of dollars into their ability to set lines.

My betslip on Underdog Fantasy is below. I’m staking $250 to win $1,500.

Next, I added a play on Alex Caruso. I’m on Caruso over 5.0 points, and I found this play on the NBA Screen. As seen in the screenshot below, every sportsbook has Caruso’s point total set at 5.5.

Alex Caruso has had exactly 5 points in three of his last ten games. These are spots where we would’ve pushed on Underdog Fantasy, and anybody who bet Caruso o5.5 points on a sportsbook would’ve lost. That’s called finding an edge… These seemingly small differences in where the line is set really matter if you want to win long-term.

The three player props I went with are:

• Poole o3.5 3-pointers
• Anze Kopitar u2.5 SOG
• Alex Caruso o5.0 Points

I doubled down on Jordan Poole o3.5 3-pointers since it was the most profitable play on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool. For some reason, Underdog Fantasy only gives me a max bet size of $250 for any entries that include an NHL pick.

I also have a five leg NBA parlay for tonight. I’m staking $150 to win $3,000 in this parlay.

My five picks are:

1. Nazem Kadri u3.5 SOG
2. Jordan Poole Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made
3. James van Riemsdyk u2.5 SOG
4. Jalen Brunson u24.5 Points
5. Jordan Clarkson o3.5 Assists

All of these plays are sharp & mathematically profitable.