How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator
A Kelly Criterion sports betting calculator can be used to manage your sports betting bankroll and determine optimal bet sizing. For obvious reasons, if your sports betting bankroll is, say, $5,000, you should not stake it all on one bet, regardless of how great you think the bet is. This is just common sense! Even the best bets lose sometimes, and you don’t want your risk of ruin to be too high. You don’t want to go broke on one bet. But what’s the optimal bet size? Should you bet 5% of your bankroll or 2.5% on each wager? That’s what a Kelly Criterion sports betting calculator tells you. It’s a mathematical betting formula that calculates the amount you should stake when there is a discrepancy between the given odds and the “fair” odds. Of course, you should only place wagers when the given odds are superior to the “fair” odds. You don’t want to place a bet at +100 odds when fair is +103. This would be an example of a negative expected value (e.g. unprofitable) sports bet, and the Kelly Criterion would tell you to stake $0. To use a Kelly Criterion calculator, you need to enter the odds given by the sportsbook, the “fair” win probability of your bet, and the current size of your sports betting bankroll. The Kelly calculator will automatically determine your optimal bet size, and this mathematical formula was designed to help you maximize profit while minimizing risk of ruin. As a general rule of thumb, your total sports betting bankroll should be an amount of money that you are comfortable losing. Most sports bettors start with a bankroll of $5,000 to $25,000. You can determine “fair” win probability using the current market odds from the sharpest sportsbook in the world - you know what it is! Simply enter the market into a no vig calculator to determine fair win probability. As an example, imagine the sharpest bookmaker in the world has the New York Mets moneyline odds listed at -104 odds. Their opponent is also listed at -104 odds, so both teams have the same moneyline odds. Thus, the “fair” win probability for the Mets would be 50%.