In this article, we’re going to discuss how to make money betting on PrizePicks Flex Play entries. We already have a few articles on PrizePicks betting strategy, so I’m going to keep this article focused on examples of profitable bets. When I started betting on sports, I learned through examples, so I hope this article is helpful to you!
First of all, if you haven’t signed up for PrizePicks yet you can do so here and use promo code ‘ODDSJAM’ for a first deposit match up to $100.
By far the best way to profit on PrizePicks is by using the OddsJam Fantasy Screen. The screen automatically shows you which props on PrizePicks are positive EV to include in your entry.
As always, I’m not a writer, so I apologize for any typos. Feel free to email us at [email protected] if you have any questions about sharp, profitable sports betting.
PrizePicks Flex Plays: How Many Legs?
For Power Plays on PrizePicks, 4 pick entries offer the best implied odds at -128. Three pick entries are worst at -141 implied odds. You never want to be betting 3 pick Power Plays on PrizePicks.
Number of Legs
Implied Odds on PrizePicks
The math behind Flex Play entries is a little more complicated than Power Plays, but 5 and 6 pick Flex Play entries are mathematically optimal. The implied odds for both are roughly -119. Thus, as a sharp bettor, we’re looking for value at -119 odds. If a play is mathematically profitable (e.g. Positive EV) at -119 odds, then that play has an “edge” in a 5 pick/6 pick Flex Play.
The OddsJam Fantasy Screen, when selected to PrizePicks, shows props that are mathematically better than those -119 implied odds. Each leg highlighted in green represents positive expected value within that bet. If you fill your entry with green bets, the expected value of the entry will be significantly positive.
Six Pick Flex Play on PrizePicks
My first pick on PrizePicks is Christian Watson over 3.5 receptions. I got this NFL prop straight from the OddsJam Positive EV Tool. The profit margin, or “edge,” of this NFL bet is 2.38% (circled below).
A 2.38% edge may seem small to a new sports bettor, but remember… These returns are daily. Earning a 2.38% daily ROI = about 70% returns each month. Your bankroll can growvery quickly with Positive EV betting.
If you started with a $1,000 bankroll and wagered your entire bankroll on bets with 2.38% EV every day, then:
Month 1: $1,000 Bankroll Becomes $1,700
Month 2: $1,700 Bankroll Becomes $2,890
Month 3: $2,890 Bankroll Becomes $4,900
The returns compound quickly as a Positive EV sports bettor. My 2022 results on verified bet tracker Pikkit are below. The ROI is only 3.63%.
Anyways, I have one pick on PrizePicks (Watson o3.5 Receptions), but I need 5 or 6 more plays in my Flex Play entry.
The next pick I have is an NHL prop, and I found it on the OddsJam Screen. I’m on Taylor Hall u3.0 Shots on Goal (SOG) on PrizePicks. As seen in the screenshot below, all sportsbooks and Underdog Fantasy have line set at 2.5 Shots on Goal.
PrizePicks is a marketinefficiency and setting their line too high. The value is on the under. We have data (e.g. betting odds) from 10+ sportsbooks, and they’re all telling us that the line should be set at 2.5 Shots on Goal. This is just rational,data-driven sports betting. We are using real-time market information (e.g. betting odds) to find an “edge.”
My six pick Flex Play on PrizePicks is:
Christian Watson o3.5 Receptions
Donovan Mitchell o28.5 Points
Matt Duchene o2 Shots on Goal
Roope Hint o2 Shots on Goal
Jake DeBrusk o2 Shots on Goal
Taylor Hall u3 Shots on Goal
A screenshot on my betslip on PrizePicks is above. I’m staking $80 win $2,000 in this PrizePicks Flex Play entry.
For example, the NHL prop bet on Matt Duchene was also from the OddsJam Screen. As seen in the image below, PrizePicks has the line set at 2.0 Shots on Goal. Every sportsbook is at 2.5, as well as their direct competitor (Underdog Fantasy).