Win Probability

Expected Value


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How to Use an Expected Value Calculator

The OddsJam expected value calculator (EV calculator) determines your profit margin over the sportsbook for a given wager. The expected value calculator requires three inputs: your stake, the odds of your wager, and the implied win percentage of your bet. The implied win percentage can be from a sports betting model or calculated using the no vig “fair” odds from a sharp sportsbook. Finding the no vig “fair” odds from the sharpest sportsbook in the world (you know what it is!) is the industry standard for fair win probability. Many bettors determine a proper stake using the Kelly Criterion. We’ll go through an example with the expected value calculator. Let’s say you bet $100 on the Los Angeles Rams +110 moneyline odds on BetFred sportsbook. The sharpest sportsbook in the world has Rams -105 moneyline odds and their opponent moneyline -105 odds as well. This means that the no vig “fair” odds are +100, and both teams have an implied win percentage of 50%. The expected value of a $100 bet on Rams +110 is equal to $5, as seen in the calculator. The formula for expected value = (fair win probability) x (profit if win) - (fair loss probability) x (stake). This is the formula in the OddsJam sports betting expected value calculator. Using the example above, the EV of our bet would be $5 using the no vig fair odds from the sharpest sportsbook in the world: 50% x $110 - 50% x $100. This bet is profitable by $5, and placing positive expected value (+EV) bets like this one will make you a lot of money in the long run as a sports bettor. You should use the expected value calculator to ensure you are only placing bets where you have positive expected value. For example, imagine you’re flipping a coin with a friend; that coin is 50/50 to land on heads or tails. At +100 odds, the expected value of a $100 coin flip is equal to $0. Why flip the coin? However, if you are getting +110 odds, then the EV of a $100 coin flip is equal to $5. You should flip that coin as much as you can!

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