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Alex On Positive EV, Variance, and Volume

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

Storytime

I (unsurprisingly) love sports betting, so I started playing around with a company called Pikkit – they’re a verifiable bet tracker… They (sadly) didn’t pay me for this email – I just think it’s a cool verifiable bet tracker.

Profit Numbers (Pictures Below)…

  1. June 2022 Profit: A LOSS of $17,769
  2. July 2022 Profit: +$65,844
  3. 2022 Profit (Net, Year to Date): +$143,202

My plays are just OddsJam Positive EV, nothing complicated… Math & data just works in sports betting…

The main point is… variance is REAL. You need to place a *large* sample size of Positive EV bets to see a return. It’s a volume game.

To go deeper, Positive EV betting is essentially just…

  • Flipping coins that are 51% to fall heads, 49% tails.
  • Imagine you’re flipping that coin with a friend for $100.
  • Of course, over a “large sample size” of flips, you’ll make money if you pick heads…
  • But that coin is still 49% to show up tails. That means you’re 11.8% to be down $300 after your first three flips… (49% x 49% x 49% = 11.8%)
  • Having an edge doesn’t mean you win every bet – it means you win over the course of the long run.

You can follow my plays on Pikkit (every single bet I’m ever on for the sportsbooks that they support): https://links.pikkit.com/user/oddsjam_alex

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