I (unsurprisingly) love sports betting, so I started playing around with a company called Pikkit – they’re a verifiable bet tracker… They (sadly) didn’t pay me for this article – I just think it’s a cool verifiable bet tracker.
Profit Numbers (Pictures Below)…
June 2022 Profit: A LOSS of $17,769
July 2022 Profit: +$65,844
2022 Profit (Net, Year to Date): +$143,202
My plays are just OddsJam Positive EV, nothing complicated… Math & data just works in sports betting…
The main point is… variance is REAL. You need to place a *large* sample size of Positive EV bets to see a return. It’s a volume game.
To go deeper, Positive EV betting is essentially just…
Flipping coins that are 51% to fall heads, 49% tails.
Imagine you’re flipping that coin with a friend for $100.
Of course, over a “large sample size” of flips, you’ll make money if you pick heads…
But that coin is still 49% to show up tails. That means you’re 11.8% to be down $300 after your first three flips… (49% x 49% x 49% = 11.8%)
Having an edge doesn’t mean you win every bet – it means you win over the course of the long run.