Six “No Brainer” NFL Bets for Week 16

In this betting preview, I’m going to share six “no brainer” NFL picks for Week 16. Each play is data-driven and mathematically profitable. In fact, I found all of these picks on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool.

As always, I’m a day trader and a sports bettor, but I’m not a writer. I apologize for any typos. If anything is unclear and you have questions, then feel free to email us at [email protected] – we’re always happy to help!

NFL Betting Introduction

The plays in this NFL betting preview are not my only NFL bets for Week 16. I also have a variety of player prop picks for this weekend.

Again, as a sharp bettor, I treat my sports betting like investing. Not every day is a winner, but I know that I have an edge and win long-term. That’s the way you want to think as a bettor. There will be variance, there will be losing streaks – it’s all about long-term gains.

My December results can be seen above on verified bet tracker Pikkit. I’m up $16,512 in December, but it’s been very streaky. That’s the life of a Positive EV bettor… I don’t really care about the “ups and downs,” though, as I know I’ll win in the long-run due to the law of large numbers. It’s just like why a casino doesn’t care when a person wins $10,000 at the roulette table – they know that person will lose in the long run since roulette is a game that cannot be beaten. The casino knows they have the edge and will win long-term.

Saints vs. Browns Predictions, Picks, Odds

The first game I have a sharp bet on is Saints vs. Browns. I’m on under 15.5 first half total points at +115 odds on FanDuel. This bet can be seen below in the screenshot from the OddsJam Positive EV Tool.

As seen in the image above, FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering odds above +105. We found value. NFL betting markets are extremely efficient – you are not going to “beat the sportsbooks” by watching NFL highlights and “handicapping.” That’s BS – there’s millions of people looking at NFL betting lines. All information is already priced into the market.

• Weather changes? Sportsbooks know – it’s priced in.
• Line up changes? Sportsbooks know – it’s priced in.
• Injuries? Sportsbooks know – it’s priced in.

I tried to put $500 on this NFL bet for Saints vs. Browns. FanDuel sportsbook, however, gave me a maximum bet size of $108.70, as seen in the screenshot above.

Although Positive EV betting is highly profitable, it’s not scalable. Sportsbooks determine maximum bet sizes, not you.

My betslip from FanDuel sportsbook is below. I wagered $108.70 at +115 odds, which was the max I could. I think that this play is the best NFL bet for Saints vs. Browns on Saturday!

Bills vs. Bears Best Bets

Next, I have an NFL pick for Bills vs. Bears. I’m on over 20 first half total points at -110 odds on Caesars sportsbook.

I say this all the time, but: you need multiple sportsbooks to be maximize profits with OddsJam. Since sportsbooks have different odds from one another, you never know which book will have the best betting opportunities on a given day. Sometimes, it’s FanDuel. Other times, it’s Caesars sportsbook. More sportsbook accounts = more profitable betting (e.g. Positive EV) opportunities = more money in your pocket. I’ve had over forty sportsbook accounts.

My sharp bet is below. I’m staking $500 at -110 odds on Caesars sportsbook.

You may be wondering “Why not take the full game over? Why first half?” Again, I’m just following the value. I am a mathematical, data-driven sports bettor. If there’s value in the first half totals, then that’s what I’ll be betting on. If the value is on player props, then I’ll have prop bets. My strategy articles simply show you plays that I’m putting my own money on.

I found another OddsJam Positive EV bet for Bears vs. Bills on FanDuel. I’m on the Bears 1st quarter moneyline at +190 odds. If the game is tied after the first quarter, then our wager will push (e.g. be refunded).

My betslip on FanDuel for Bears vs. Bills is below. I’m staking $26.30 to win $76.27. Again, $26.30 was just the maximum wager size that FanDuel allowed.

As a note, using the Positive EV Tool is not complicated – it’s as simple as placing the bet in bold with a circle around it. Here’s a quick EV betting tutorial if you’re new to profitable betting strategy.

Giants vs. Jaguars Predictions & Sharp Picks

Next, I have a pick in Giants vs. Jaguars. I’m on under 18.5 first half total points at +105 odds on FanDuel.

As seen in the screenshot above, every sportsbook has the under as the “favored” outcome. On Caesars, for example, the under 18.5 1H total points is -121 odds and the over is -113 odds. Lines are juiced towards the under, which means that Caesars sportsbook believes the under is more likely to hit. That’s just how odds works.

My betslip on FanDuel is below. I’m staking $225 at +105 odds.

Broncos vs. Rams: Sharp Betting Picks

Next, I have a play in Rams vs. Broncos. I’m on the Rams moneyline at +130 odds on FanDuel sportsbook. As seen in the screenshot below from the Positive EV Tool, no other book is offering odds above +118.

We have hundreds of data points – sportsbooks posting odds – in the betting market. When every sportsbook is pricing the Rams around +115 and you can get +130 on FanDuel, it’s a “no brainer” bet. Find value.

I’m not smarter than the sportsbooks and their sophisticated models. Nobody is. Books invest hundreds of millions of dollars into their ability to set lines. Additionally, sports betting is a market based on supply & demand. Betting odds represent the opinions of millions of sports bettor. If all the action comes in on Rams moneyline, then books will move the odds lower on the Rams.

But… you can still make money sports betting because books have different lines from one another. OddsJam is constantly updating 1,000,000+ odds in real-time to show you the rare, few betting opportunities that actually have an “edge.” Sportsbooks are pretty good at making money off bettors, but they’re not perfect… Out of the 50,000+ odds on FanDuel, they can’t keep everything in check perfectly.

“Out of the 1,000,000+ odds across books, where’s the value?” That’s the question that OddsJam answers.

FanDuel gave me a max wager size of $187.30, and I locked it in. My betslip is below.

Again, there’s nothing complicated going on here… My betting strategy is quite simple – I use the OddsJam Positive EV Tool. Making money sports betting is really that simple. It’s all about finding value and a verifiable edge, and this is only possible because books have different odds from one another.

Handicappers love to overcomplicate sports betting. I don’t know why.

Commanders vs. 49ers: Best Picks & Sharp Bets

I also locked in the San Francisco 49ers 3rd Quarter Moneyline. It’s a part of this two leg NFL parlay that I put together on FanDuel sportsbook. My betslip is below.

My two picks are:

• Titans moneyline (vs. the Cowboys)
• 49ers 3Q moneyline (vs. the Commanders)

This parlay may seem “random,” but, again… I just follow the value and make money. If there’s value in the quarter moneylines, then I’ll be betting on them. If there is no value in those markets, then I won’t be betting on them…