Once you realize that trusting your gut makes no sense in sports betting, making money betting on the NFL becomes simple. It’s all about finding value and bets with an “edge.” My main tool of choice for profitable NFL betting is OddsJam Positive EV.
Step 1: Set Up Your Positive EV Filters
The first step to Positive EV betting is setting up your filters. By default, OddsJam will show you profitable (e.g. Positive EV) bets for all leagues & every sportsbook in your location. This is fully customizable, though. You can filter out specific sportsbooks, specific leagues, etc.
Step 2: Find an NFL Bet that You Like
OddsJam will show you the highest profit margin bets in your location first. Here, you can see the most profitable NFL bet currently available is the Ravens 1st half moneyline at +140 odds on Caesars sportsbook.
This bet has a profit margin of 1.73%, as circled in the screenshot above. In other words, if you hit this bet for $100, then your profit margin would be $100 x 1.73% = $1.73.
OddsJam is not a “get rich quick” product. It’s all about slow & steady gains and plays with an “edge.” If you want to try to make $1,000,000 overnight, then play the scratch off lottery…
Step 3: Hit the Bet
You need to move fast. I say this all the time – sports betting is like day trading. It is NOT a game for the slow, and great lines do NOT last forever. Here’s a good tutorial video on how to move fast as a sharp bettor.
Step 4: Deal with Variance, It’s Normal
If a play has an “edge,” it’s still not guaranteed to win. Look at my verified bet tracker. I’ve made $40,271 betting on the NFL in 2022. There are down swings, and there are upswings. I highly recommend learning about variance in betting.
Step 5: Seriously, Stop Trusting Your Gut
Every industry run offs data. The entire financial industry is run off real-time market data (e.g. asset prices). Why do you think every trader and investor uses a Bloomberg Terminal? It’s to see real-time market data.
Sports betting is not different – data is all that matters. Betting odds (e.g. the sports betting ‘market’) are based on all information currently available, as well as all “action” (e.g. wagers) that has occurred in the market. Thus, betting odds reflect the opinions of every sports bettor. If most of the betting volume is coming in on the Baltimore Ravens, then lines move towards the Baltimore Ravens. This is a market that is no different than the stock market.