NFL Week 16 Betting: Three “No Brainer” Player Props with Value

In this betting preview, I’m going to share three sharp player prop picks for Week 16 of the 2022-23 NFL season. All of my plays are mathematically profitable (e.g. Positive EV) & based on real-time market data (e.g. betting odds) and logic.

I say this all the time, but there are a lot of ways to make money sports betting. Although I mainly focus on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool, middle betting (e.g. “middling”) can be an extremely profitable sports betting strategy.

Middle bets occur when sportsbooks set the lines at different levels from one another. For example, in the screenshot above, you’ll see that Underdog Fantasy has Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards line (e.g. over/under) set at 290.5 yards. PrizePicks, a direct competitor to Underdog, is setting Tua’s over/under at 255.5. That’s a 35 yard gap, which is insane… I found this middle on the OddsJam NFL Screen.

A sharp, profitable bettor would want to bet the over 255.5 on PrizePicks and the under 290.5 on Underdog Fantasy. That, right there, is a middle, and OddsJam has a betting tool for this.

There are three possibilities:

1. Tua throws for 255 or less passing yards: In this case, the u290.5 will win on Underdog Fantasy. We will lose our o255.5 passing yards on PrizePicks.
2. Tua throws between 256 and 290 passing yards: Both picks will win. We’ll cash u290.5 yards on Underdog, as well as o255.5 yards on PrizePicks.
3. Tua throws for 291 or more passing yards: PrizePicks will win, Underdog Fantasy will lose.

This middle would have “hit” once out of Tua’s last five games. Against the Browns on November 13, Tua threw for 285 yards. We would’ve won both our over and our under.

In his other four games, he’s thrown for:

1. 234 yards on December 17 against the Bills
2. 145 yards on December 11 against the Chargers
3. 295 yards on December 4 against the 49ers
4. 299 yards on November 27 against the Texans

Our middle bet would’ve been a very close call in the 49ers and Texans games…

I found another middle betting opportunity in the Panthers vs. Lions game. Sam Darnold’s passing yards line is 195.5 on Underdog Fantasy and 210.5 on PrizePicks. In this situation, we’d want to bet the under on PrizePicks and the over on Underdog Fantasy. This play was also found on the OddsJam NFL Screen.

What’s incredible about middles is that these are low-risk lottery tickets. We will never lose both bets. Sam Darnold will always throw over 195.5 yards or under 210.5 yards – it’s impossible to lose both plays.

As a sports bettor who wagers on middles, I’m typically rooting for a small window of opportunity. In the Sam Darnold example, I’m hoping he throws between 196 and 210 yards on Saturday. If that happens, then both of my plays will cash.

I “middled” all three of these early NFL bets. On Underdog Fantasy, I have:

• Tua Tagovailoa u290.5 Yards
• Sam Darnold o195.5 Yards
• Kirk Cousins u285.5 Passing Yards

Often times, I’m able to find these middle bets early in the week when sportsbooks first post odds. When odds are first posted, you’ll sometimes notice a lot of disagreement between books on where a line should be set. As sharp action comes in (e.g. OddsJam customers placing bets), the sportsbooks correct their inefficiencies. That’s why it is critical to look for value early in the week and be a fast sports bettor. This is day trading sportsbooks – great lines don’t last forever.

As seen in the screenshot above, Kirk Cousins had his passing yards line set at 255.5 on PrizePicks, so this was another incredible middle. We got under 285.5 on Underdog and over 255.5 yards on PrizePicks. We’re rooting for Kirk Cousins to have between 256 and 285 passing yards on Sunday.

On PrizePicks, I try to bet 5 pick or 6 pick Flex Play entries. I put together this 5 pick entry:

• Tua Tagovailoa o255.5 Yards
• Kirk Cousins o255.5 Yards
• Sam Darnold u210.5 Yards
• Ivan Provorov u0.5 Points
• Adrian Kempe o2.5 SOG

Both of the final NHL picks were found on the OddsJam Positive EV Betting Tool.

Again, you should be betting on every sport, not just the NFL. The concepts of hunting for value, inefficiencies and finding plays with an “edge” is NOT specific to football. More is merrier in sports betting. It is essential to learn this early in your sports betting journey.

For crying out loud, I’ve profited $25,343.26 on the NHL in 2022. I have not watched a single hockey game. I don’t know anything about the players or coaches. It’s all about the data and the market. My verified bet tracker information can be seen below.