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Hammering Player Prop Bets on PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy

Alex here, the founder of OddsJam. As usual, I decided to hammer out tons of player props this morning. They’re all sharp, and they’re all mathematically profitable (e.g. Positive EV).

Each pick was found on one of these two betting tools:

  1. The OddsJam Screen
  2. The Positive EV Tool

Making money sports betting is a grind. It is not passive income. I want to be clear that these picks are not “locks” – they’re just plays with a mathematical “edge” (e.g. profit margin). Sports betting has variance, and it can be brutal. There’s so much BS in this industry – people trying to get rich quick with crazy parlays. That is not OddsJam.

Investors look for value, day traders look for value. So, yes, sports bettors should look for value…

Anyways, let’s get into the plays!

Underdog Fantasy: Player Prop Picks

The first player prop I have is Marvin Jones Jr. under 2.0 receptions on Underdog Fantasy. This play was found on the OddsJam Screen.

The Odds Screen is incredibly useful for comparing lines set at different levels. As seen in the screenshot above, PrizePicks, a direct competitor to Underdog Fantasy, has the line for Marvin Jones Jr. set at 1.5 receptions. All the sportsbooks are setting the line at 1.5, too.

The difference between betting u1.5 and u2.0 receptions may seem small, but it’s not. It’s massive…

In his last game, Marvin Jones Jr. had exactly 2 receptions. Betting his under would have pushed on Underdog Fantasy (under 2.0 receptions) and lost on PrizePicks, as well as every sportsbook (under 1.5 receptions).

The next play I have is CJ McCollum over 6.5 assists. I found this NBA pick on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool.

The Odds Screen is great for comparing lines set at different levels (e.g. 1.5 vs. 2.0 receptions for Marvin Jones Jr.), but the Positive EV Tool works differently. This betting tool compares lines set at the same level (e.g. McCollum over/under 6.5 assists).

As seen in the screenshot of the EV Tool, all sportsbooks have McCollum over 6.5 assists as the heavy favorite.

  • Sports Illustrated: -161 odds
  • FanDuel: -150 odds
  • Caesars: -179 odds
  • Unibet: -155 odds
  • DraftKings: -175 odds
  • Etc.

On Underdog Fantasy, we’re getting -122 implied odds in 3 pick and 5 pick entries, as explained in this DFS strategy article. McCollum o6.5 assists is a “no brainer” given sportsbooks are at an average of -150 odds… I’m just following the data & being logical. Making money sports betting really is that simple.

My first parlay on Underdog Fantasy is above. I have 5 picks and am staking $150 to win $3,000.

  1. Mats Zuccarello u3.0 Shots on Goal (e.g. SOG)
  2. Marvin Jones u2.0 Receptions
  3. CJ McCollum o6.5 Assists
  4. Jake DeBrusk o2.0 SOG
  5. Cole Perfetti u2.0 SOG

Once again, all of these plays were found on either the OddsJam Screen or the EV Tool. No magic going on here…

In the screenshot above, you’ll see a play I found on the NHL Screen: Cole Perfetti u2.0 SOG. All of the sportsbooks have his over/under set at 1.5 SOG. Barstool even has the under 1.5 SOG as the favored outcome (-122 on the under, -106 on the over). We found value and an “edge.”

Sports betting is like day trading. You are hunting through the market and looking for “edges.” Since books have different odds from one another, this is pretty easy. It just requires a bit of time. When every book has Perfetti’s line set at an o/u of 1.5 and you can grab u2.0 on Underdog Fantasy, that’s just a “no brainer” bet with an edge.

Next, I have Patrice Bergeron o3.0 SOG. Same strategy, different bet. Just find value in the market!

As seen in the screenshot above, all books have the line at 3.5. Barstool & BetRivers even have the over 3.5 SOG as the favored outcome (e.g. odds are juiced towards the over: -122 over, -106 under). Thus, Barstool & BetRivers are implying that the over is more likely to occur. Being able to get over 3.0 for Patrice Bergeron is another “no brainer” bet.

My three pick parlay on Underdog Fantasy is above:

  1. Marvin Jones u2.0 Receptions
  2. Patrice Bergeron o3.0 SOG
  3. CJ McCollum o6.5 Assists

As a note, I know nothing about hockey. I didn’t know Patrice Bergeron was a player in the NHL until today.

The truth, your sports knowledge does not matter in betting. Sportsbooks invest hundreds of millions of dollars into their ability to set lines. Additionally, all public information is priced in. If the weather changes in an NFL game, the sportsbooks know. It’s priced into the market. If you’re hitting the under for this reason, just know that the sportsbooks have already adjusted lines based on supply and demand.

Your only hope for beating the books long-term is finding market inefficiencies, like all the plays I gave out above. That’s how you actually beat the books long-term and have an “edge.”

This also means that you should be betting on every sport. More is merrier in sports betting… Wherever you can find an edge, you should be betting.

I have lots of other bets on Underdog Fantasy (shown above), but I’ll just go through one more parlay in this betting preview…

I have another three leg parlay, and my picks are:

  1. Zay Jones u4.5 Receptions
  2. Garrett Wilson u4.5 Receptions
  3. CJ McCollum o6.5 Assists

I’m staking $1,000 to win $6,000 on Underdog Fantasy, and my betslip is below.

PrizePicks: Player Prop Bets

PrizePicks is a direct competitor to Underdog Fantasy.

So… you may be wondering: “Why get both?? Why not just one?”

Well, check out the insanely profitable bet below: Brent Burns o2.5 SOG. It’s only on PrizePicks. This play isn’t available on Underdog Fantasy. If you only have Underdog, then you’re missing out on profitable betting opportunities.

For a 5 pick or 6 pick Flex Play, the implied odds are roughly -119. Thus, on PrizePicks, we’re looking for five or six player prop bets with value at -119. Here’s the first parlay I put together:

  1. Tony DeAngelo u2.5 SOG
  2. James van Riemsdyk u2.5 SOG
  3. Marvin Jones o1.5 Receptions
  4. CJ McCollum o6.5 Assists
  5. Brent Burns o2.5 SOG
  6. Claude Giroux u2.5 SOG

My betslip is below, and I’m staking $80 to win $2,000.

I know what you’re thinking…

  1. “Didn’t you already bet CJ McCollum over 6.5 Assists? Why bet it again??” Well, there’s value. Underdog Fantasy limits NBA max bet sizes to $2,000. PrizePicks limits me to $80 on Flex Plays. That’s all I can get down. If a play is profitable on two sportsbooks, then I’ll hit it on both books.
  2. “Didn’t you have Marvin Jones u2.0 Receptions on Underdog? What are you doing?!” Well, I’m following the value. This is called a middle in sports betting. If Jones has exactly two receptions, then we will push (e.g. “tie” or “refunded”) on Underdog Fantasy, and we will win on PrizePicks. Sure, I bet both the over and the under, but the lines are set at different levels. We’re not comparing apples to apples: over 1.5 receptions is not the same bet as over 2.0 receptions. They’re completely different. It’s like buying Bitcoin at $5,000 versus $35,000.

My next play is Travis Etienne Jr. over 16 rushing attempts on PrizePicks. As seen in the screenshot above, Underdog Fantasy has the line at 17.0 rushing attempts. FanDuel is at 17.5 (lines are juiced towards the under), and DraftKings is at 16.5 (lines juiced towards the over). There’s clear value on over 16.0 rushing attempts on PrizePicks.

We are using market data (e.g. betting odds) to make more informed betting decisions. OddsJam is our Bloomberg Terminal.

I also locked in Kevin Hayes under 2.5 Shots on Goal. This was a Positive EV bet. As seen in the screenshot above, the profit margin (or “edge”) of this play is 3.84%. Although a 3.84% return may seem small, you need to remember that these returns are daily. This game is today. A 3.84% daily return on capital yields an ROI over 100% each month (3.84% x 30 days = 115.2%).

I’m staking $80 to win $2,000 in my six leg parlay on PrizePicks. My picks are:

  1. Kevin Hayes u2.5 SOG
  2. Viktor Arvidsson u2.5 SOG
  3. Mark Scheifele u2.5 SOG
  4. Travis Etienne o16.0 Rushing Attempts
  5. Elias Lindholm u2.5 SOG
  6. J.T. Miller u2.5 SOG

A lot of complicated names, so I’m glad this isn’t a YouTube video…

Again, betting lines can move at any time. All of my picks are sharp and have an edge, so I’m not sure if these plays will be available by the time you get to them.

Just like the stock market, sportsbook odds are dynamic. To get the best bets, you need to be fast and know how to navigate the sportsbooks. This is day trading sports to make significant profits.

How to Become a Fast Sports Bettor

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