PrizePicks Rags to Riches: 6 “No Brainer” Player Prop Picks

In this betting preview, I’m going to run through six sharp player prop picks on PrizePicks. I have MLB, NBA and NHL props for tonight.

Pick #1: Sam Reinhart Over 2.0 Shots on Goal (SOG) in Maple Leafs vs Panthers

My first player prop for today is an NHL pick. I’m on Sam Reinhart over 2.0 SOG on PrizePicks, and I found this NHL prop on the Odds Screen.

As seen in the screenshot above, aside from PrizePicks, all sportsbooks & DFS platforms (e.g. Underdog Fantasy) have Reinhart’s line at 2.0 Shots on Goal.

PrizePicks is too low relative to every other data point (e.g. sportsbook posting odds), so we want to take Reinhart’s over. Reinhart o2.0 SOG is a sharp, data-driven NHL pick to go with tonight.

In two of his last four games, Reinhart has had exactly 2 SOG. That’s two games where we would’ve lost our bet if we took Reinhart’s over 2.5 SOG, but taking his over 2.0 SOG would’ve pushed (e.g. tied).

Pick #2: Dustin May Over 4.5 Strikeouts in Padres vs Dodgers

My next player prop on PrizePicks is in the MLB. I’m on Dustin May over 4.5 Ks in the Padres vs Dodgers game tonight. I found this MLB prop on OddsJam Positive EV (bet in bold/green = profitable).

To be profitable on PrizePicks, you just have to win above 54.25% of your player prop over/unders. PrizePicks is a fixed payout platform – they don’t vary your payout based on the picks you select. Any 5 pick flex play will have the following payout structure:

• 5/5 Correct: 10x Payout
• 4/5 Correct: 2x Payout
• 3/5 Correct: 0.4x Payout

It doesn’t matter if you take 5 golf picks, 3 NBA & 2 MLB picks or any other combination. Again, PrizePicks is a fixed payout platform. Any 5 pick entry will have the exact same payout structure.

The way that PrizePicks makes money is by assuming sports bettors have no “edge” (e.g. advantage). If you have no edge, then you’ll only be able to win your player prop over/unders 50% of the time. You’ll win 50% and lose 50% of your player prop picks – just like flipping a coin.

However, to make money on PrizePicks and be profitable long-term, you need to win at least 54.25% of your player prop over/unders.

The Positive EV Tool simply points out PrizePicks player props that have win rates above 54.25%. As seen in the previous screenshot, it’s May over 4.5 Ks (pick in green/bold). All sportsbooks have May’s over 4.5 Ks heavily favored; the average price on his over is -137 odds.

This is exactly what we’re looking for on PrizePicks – spots where sportsbooks have one side of the market heavily favored. In this case, it is May’s over. According to betting market, May’s over 4.5 strikeouts is a lot more likely than his under.

The first 5 player prop picks I went with on PrizePicks were:

• Shea Langeliers Over 0.5 Bases
• Same Reinhart Over 2.0 SOG
• LeBron James Under 2.5 Made Threes
• Dustin May Over 4.5 Strikeouts
• Gary Payton II Under 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Asssists

The majority of these picks were found on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool. I also locked in another 5 pick flex play with the “free square” on Joel Embiid. PrizePicks is a running a promotion where Embiid’s line is over/under 0.5 Points. That’s a “no brainer” promo… Obviously, Embiid going to have 1+ point in Game 7.