MLB Best Bets Thursday 6/20/24

Today’s MLB slate offers some exciting matchups and excellent betting opportunities. Let’s dive into the top five MLB best bets for today, providing key insights and explanations for each pick. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just looking to make some informed plays, these bets should help guide your strategy.

1. Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Suggested Bet: Nationals Moneyline (-142)

• Pitching Matchup:
  • Nationals: MacKenzie Gore (LHP) – 28.1% K rate against left-handed hitters, but struggles with control.
  • Diamondbacks: Ryne Nelson (RHP) – 8.94 DK points per game, high ISO allowed to right-handed hitters.
• Key Insights:
  • Gore has been improving, with more good starts than bad in his last five outings.
  • The Diamondbacks have been strong against fastballs, but Nelson’s high FIP and WHIP on the road make him vulnerable.
  • Nationals’ offense, led by CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas, should exploit Nelson’s weaknesses.

The Nationals have a solid chance to take advantage of Nelson’s struggles, especially given their offensive capabilities.

2. Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

Suggested Bet: Guardians Moneyline (+102)

• Pitching Matchup:
  • Guardians: Logan Allen (LHP) – Solid performance lately with a low WHIP at home.
  • Mariners: Luis Castillo (RHP) – Strong strikeout rates, but susceptible to giving up hits.
• Key Insights:
  • Guardians’ offense ranks top 10 in most batting metrics against right-handed pitchers in the last 30 days.
  • Castillo has struggled against the current Guardians roster, with a high batting average against.
  • Guardians’ bats, including Steven Kwan and José Ramírez, are in great form.

Cleveland’s balanced lineup and recent offensive surge make them a strong underdog pick today.

3. Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Suggested Bet: Twins Moneyline (-112)

• Pitching Matchup:
  • Twins: Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP) – Impressive at home, with a low WHIP.
  • Rays: Zack Littell (RHP) – Struggles on the road, allowing high ISO to left-handed hitters.
• Key Insights:
  • Twins’ offense is powerful, particularly against right-handed pitching.
  • Littell’s road struggles combined with the Twins’ offensive prowess create a favorable scenario for Minnesota.
  • Key hitters like Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis are expected to perform well.

Minnesota’s home advantage and the Rays’ pitching woes on the road make this a solid bet.

4. Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox

Suggested Bet: Astros Moneyline (-175)

• Pitching Matchup:
  • Astros: Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) – High strikeout rates, but control issues.
  • White Sox: Chris Flexen (RHP) – Struggles against right-handed hitters, high ISO allowed.
• Key Insights:
  • Astros’ lineup, featuring Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, excels against right-handed pitchers.
  • Flexen’s high ISO allowed to right-handers makes him a prime target for the Astros’ power hitters.
  • Houston’s offense has been consistently strong, and they are expected to take advantage of Flexen’s weaknesses.

Houston’s potent offense should dominate against Flexen, making them a safe pick despite the juice.

5. Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies

Suggested Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-142)

• Pitching Matchup:
  • Dodgers: Gavin Stone (RHP) – Moderate strikeout rates, decent control.
  • Rockies: Ty Blach (LHP) – Struggles against right-handed hitters, high ISO allowed.
• Key Insights:
  • Coors Field is extremely hitter-friendly, favoring the Dodgers’ powerful lineup.
  • Key Dodgers hitters like Freddie Freeman and Will Smith have excellent splits against left-handed pitchers.
  • Blach’s struggles against right-handed bats should result in a high-scoring game for the Dodgers.

The Dodgers’ offensive power and Blach’s vulnerabilities make the run line bet a solid choice.

Conclusion

These top bets offer a mix of moneyline and run line opportunities, backed by strong statistical insights and favorable matchups. Use these recommendations to guide your betting strategy today and maximize your chances of success. Good luck!