MLB Best Bets Thursday 9/19/24

Welcome to today’s edition of MLB Best Bets! We’ve got a full slate of action, and I’m diving deep into some of the best plays on the board. I’ll break down the matchups, give you key insights, and explain why these are my top leans today. Remember, betting is all about the edges, and we’re looking to maximize every edge we can find.

Let’s get into it.

1. Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-142) vs. Oakland A’s

• Lean: Cubs Moneyline
• Analysis: The Cubs are throwing Justin Steele on the mound, who has been dominant in his recent starts, going 5-0 over his last five outings. The Cubs are in the thick of the wild-card race, and Oakland, while feisty, has been outclassed offensively. Steele is coming off an elbow issue, but if he’s on point, the Cubs’ bullpen and offense should get the job done at home.
• Key Points:
  • Cubs 39-33 at home
  • Steele: 3.09 ERA, Cubs 5-0 in his last five starts
  • Oakland’s inconsistent offense, despite strong bullpen play

2. Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-141) vs. Colorado Rockies

• Lean: Diamondbacks Moneyline
• Analysis: The Diamondbacks are looking to avoid getting swept by the Rockies, and Eduardo Rodriguez will be key to that. He hasn’t been lights out lately, but Arizona’s offense, first in the league in runs and on-base percentage, has the tools to wake up against Colorado’s Austin Gomber, who has been shaky.
• Key Points:
  • Diamondbacks strong road team, but cold lately
  • Arizona: 1st in runs scored and OBP
  • Gomber struggles against better offenses

3. Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110) vs. Minnesota Twins

• Lean: Guardians Moneyline
• Analysis: Tanner Bibee has been strong in his recent starts, and he has fared well against the Twins this season. Cleveland’s bullpen is one of the best in baseball, and while their offense can be inconsistent, they’ve been scrappy in these key divisional games. I like Bibee to hold the Twins in check and get Cleveland another home win.
• Key Points:
  • Bibee: 3.60 ERA, great vs. Twins earlier this year
  • Guardians bullpen: 2.65 ERA (elite)
  • Twins’ bats have struggled against solid pitching

4. Houston Astros – Moneyline (-110) vs. San Diego Padres

• Lean: Astros Moneyline
• Analysis: Houston sends Framber Valdez to the mound, who has been sensational, giving up just one earned run in his last three starts combined. The Astros are fighting to solidify their playoff standing, and even though the Padres are a tough opponent, Valdez’s recent form gives Houston the edge.
• Key Points:
  • Valdez: 2.91 ERA, dominant in last 3 starts
  • Astros bullpen: 3.48 ERA (solid)
  • Padres are just 41-34 at home, not unbeatable

5. Los Angeles Dodgers – Runline (-1.5) vs. Miami Marlins

• Lean: Dodgers -1.5
• Analysis: After a tough loss to Miami, the Dodgers are primed for a bounce-back. Landon Knack gets the start and, despite a rough outing against the Braves, has shown he can bounce back. Miami’s offense has been weak overall, and with Ryan Weathers returning from injury for Miami, it’s a prime spot for the Dodgers’ big bats to break out.
• Key Points:
  • Dodgers are 45-30 on the road
  • Weathers (Marlins): just returning from injury
  • Dodgers’ offense: 2nd in MLB in runs scored

Final Thoughts

That’s the breakdown for today’s MLB slate. We’ve got a solid mix of moneylines and a runline play, giving us multiple ways to attack the board. Stick with pitchers in form, trust bullpens that are getting the job done, and let’s lock in some wins.

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