MLB Best Bets Friday 9/27/24

Welcome to today’s MLB Best Bets! With the regular season winding down, finding value can be tricky as some teams have already clinched their spots, while others are coasting towards the offseason.

Today, I’ll break down a few matchups that stand out, providing key insights and recommended plays for each game. Remember, with end-of-season volatility, it’s crucial to stay selective and target the right matchups.

MLB Best Bets for Today’s Slate

1. Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds

• Suggested Bet: Cubs Moneyline -130
• Analysis:
  • Jameson Taillon is expected to take the mound for the Cubs against Nick Martinez for the Reds. While neither pitcher has been consistent this season, Chicago’s offensive edge and better bullpen make them the play here.
  • Both teams are out of the playoff picture, but the Cubs’ bats have been more reliable lately, especially at home. Combine that with the windy conditions expected at Wrigley Field today, making run production a challenge, the Cubs’ pitching advantage should carry them through.
  • Key Points:
    • Cubs’ bullpen ranks higher in ERA and WHIP compared to the Reds.
    • Chicago is 6-4 in their last 10 home games.

2. Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox

• Suggested Bet: Tigers Moneyline (Depending on Odds)
• Analysis:
  • The Tigers are three games up in the Wild Card race and have been on a tear lately, winning 8 of their last 10 games. Garrett Crochet has been solid for the White Sox but hasn’t had the run support needed to translate those performances into wins.
  • Detroit’s offense has been a pleasant surprise, sweeping Tampa Bay and taking series from Baltimore and Kansas City. The Tigers should capitalize on their momentum and close out the season strong.
  • Key Points:
    • Tigers’ offense is averaging 5.1 runs per game in their last nine contests.
    • Chicago’s lineup has struggled against left-handed pitchers, batting under .220 in their last 15 games.

3. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals

• Suggested Bet: Phillies First Five Run Line -0.5 (-120)
• Analysis:
  • Ranger Suarez has been exceptional on the road, posting a 1.06 WHIP and a 3.14 expected FIP. Meanwhile, Trevor Williams has struggled for Washington, especially at home, where his ERA balloons to over 5.00.
  • Washington’s bats have cooled off significantly, scoring less than 3 runs per game over their last 10. Philly should be able to jump on Williams early, making the first five run line a safer play compared to the full-game spread.
  • Key Points:
    • Phillies are 8-2 in Suarez’s last 10 road starts.
    • Nationals have lost 7 of their last 8 home games.

4. New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

• Suggested Bet: Yankees First Five Run Line -0.5 (-115)
• Analysis:
  • Carlos Rodon has shown flashes of brilliance this season, especially at home. He’ll face Jared Jones, who’s been inconsistent for Pittsburgh. The Pirates have struggled offensively, scoring two or fewer runs in four of their last five games.
  • Expect the Yankees to take an early lead and lean on their bullpen to close it out. However, the first five innings play feels like the most comfortable spot given the Yankees’ unpredictability in late-game scenarios.
  • Key Points:
    • Yankees’ offense has a .780 OPS against right-handed pitchers in the last month.
    • Rodon’s home ERA is a full run lower than his road ERA.

5. Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians

• Suggested Bet: Astros Moneyline +105
• Analysis:
  • Joey Cantillo is expected to pitch for Cleveland, and while the Guardians have been hot, I’m leaning on the Astros’ experience and lineup depth here.
  • Houston is rarely available at plus money, making this a value play. Despite some key injuries, the Astros’ lineup still has enough power to take advantage of Cantillo’s inexperience.
  • Key Points:
    • Astros are 6-4 in their last 10 games against left-handed starters.
    • Cleveland has been inconsistent at home, dropping 3 of their last 5.

6. Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals

• Suggested Bet: First Five Under 4.5 (-115)
• Analysis:
  • Max Fried takes the mound for the Braves against Brady Singer. Both pitchers have been solid in the second half of the season, and Kansas City’s offense has been sluggish.
  • Expect a low-scoring affair early on, with both pitchers finding success against lineups that struggle against off-speed pitches.
  • Key Points:
    • Royals’ offense is averaging just 2.8 runs per game in their last 10.
    • Fried’s ERA in September is under 2.00.

7. Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets

• Suggested Bet: Mets Moneyline -115
• Analysis:
  • Frankie Montas gets the nod for Milwaukee, while Sean Manaea takes the mound for the Mets. The Mets have a slight offensive edge and should capitalize on Montas’s inconsistency.
  • New York knows they need to keep winning to secure their playoff position, and I trust them to find a way at home.
  • Key Points:
    • Mets’ offense is averaging 5.5 runs per game in their last 8 home games.
    • Milwaukee is 3-7 in their last 10 road games.

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