MLB Best Bets Friday 6/21/24

Welcome to today’s MLB Best Bets article! We’ve analyzed all the matchups for today’s slate to bring you our top five bets. Each pick is backed by detailed insights and key statistics to help you make informed betting decisions. Let’s get right into it!

1. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Suggested Bet: Phillies -134

Pitching Matchup:

• Jordan Montgomery (LHP) vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Jordan Montgomery: With a high 5.38 xERA and 20% K rate, Montgomery faces a Phillies lineup strong against LHPs (.342 OBP). The Diamondbacks bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors, which could spell trouble if Montgomery exits early.
• Taijuan Walker: Walker’s 5.78 xERA and 10% walk rate are red flags, but the Phillies’ potent offense (.308 OBP against RHPs) should capitalize. Despite missing J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies still boast a strong lineup with Bryce Harper and others.

Why This Bet?

• The Phillies are 29-10 at home, the best home record in the MLB. Walker’s recent solid performances against tough opponents and the Phillies’ strong bullpen (3.13 ERA, tied for first) give them a significant edge.

2. New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves

Suggested Bet: No Run First Inning (NRFI)

Pitching Matchup:

• Chris Sale (LHP) vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP)

Key Insights:

• Chris Sale: With a stellar 2.70 xERA and 30% K rate, Sale faces a Yankees lineup with a .319 OBP against LHPs. Sale has been dominant, limiting hard contact effectively.
• Carlos Rodon: Rodon’s 4.01 xERA and 23% K rate suggest he can compete well. Despite the Yankees’ recent struggles, their offense remains potent, but both pitchers have the tools to start strong.

Why This Bet?

• Both pitchers are capable of quick, effective innings. The Yankees have hit a rough patch, and Sale’s dominance early in games makes the NRFI a solid play.

3. Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Suggested Bet: Cubs -150

Pitching Matchup:

• Shota Imanaga (LHP) vs. Jose Quintana (LHP)

Key Insights:

• Shota Imanaga: Imanaga’s 3.10 xERA and 26% K rate highlight his dominance. He faces a Mets lineup with a .349 OBP against LHPs, but Imanaga has been consistent in limiting hard contact.
• Jose Quintana: With a 5.42 xERA and a low 17% K rate, Quintana faces a Cubs lineup that has shown decent performance against lefties (.305 OBP).

Why This Bet?

• The Cubs are 21-16 at home, playing much better at Wrigley Field. Imanaga’s consistency and the Cubs’ strong bullpen (3.86 ERA) provide a solid foundation for a win.

4. Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros

Suggested Bet: Orioles -1.5 (+105)

Pitching Matchup:

• Grayson Rodriguez (RHP) vs. Jake Bloss (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Grayson Rodriguez: Rodriguez’s 3.53 xERA and 26% K rate position him well against an Astros lineup with a .318 OBP against RHPs. Rodriguez has been reliable, and the Orioles bullpen is among the best.
• Jake Bloss: Making his MLB debut, Bloss faces a formidable Orioles lineup that has been potent all season. The Astros bullpen has been inconsistent, raising concerns if Bloss exits early.

Why This Bet?

• The Orioles have been the best road team in the MLB (24-11) and are favored against a rookie pitcher. The potent Orioles offense and strong bullpen support this pick.

5. Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres

Suggested Bet: Brewers +132

Pitching Matchup:

• Colin Rea (RHP) vs. Dylan Cease (RHP)

Key Insights:

• Colin Rea: With a 5.24 xERA and 19% K rate, Rea’s numbers are concerning, but the Brewers’ bullpen (3.67 ERA) provides solid support.
• Dylan Cease: Cease’s recent struggles (3.41 xERA and 7 ER in his last start) highlight inconsistencies. The Padres lineup has been hit or miss, and the Brewers could exploit Cease’s weaknesses.

Why This Bet?

• The Brewers have been solid on the road (22-19) and should capitalize on Cease’s inconsistencies. The plus odds provide value in this matchup.

These are our top five MLB bets for today’s slate. Each pick is backed by key insights and statistics to help you make the best decisions. Good luck, and stay tuned for more betting advice!