Against the Spread Picks for Every NFL Game: ATS Predictions for Week 3, including an NFC East Showdown on MNF

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Matt ModiSeptember 20, 2022 at 09:52 PM

OddsJam’s football expert breaks down the NFL slate, giving his against-the-spread picks for every single game of football action! Find the top Week 3 odds, picks and predictions today below.

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Thursday Night Football

Steelers vs. Browns (-5.5)

Thursday, Sept. 22 | 8:15 p.m. ET

There are some crazy stats about the Steelers and how often they cover both divisional games and games where they are the underdog. Since 2010, the Steelers have covered at the highest percent of divisional games in the entire NFL, covering the spread 58.3% of the time.

As underdogs, the Steelers cover at the second highest rate in the NFL, covering 62.5% of the time. This is going to be a gross, low-scoring affair between two good defenses and two bad offenses. I’ll gladly lay the points.

Steelers vs. Browns Pick: Steelers +5.5 | -107 at PointsBet

Early Sunday NFL Slate

Saints (-3) vs. Panthers

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 1 p.m. ET

Let’s call a spade a spade: the Panthers and Baker Mayfield stink. They were gifted a relatively easy schedule to start the year, a year in which Matt Rhule needed to have a good season to keep his job, and they’ve started 0-2. They lost to the Browns in Week 1 and then lost to the Giants last week. They are toast.

The Saints should have no trouble sending the Panthers season further into chaos in this one.

Saints vs. Panthers Pick: Saints -2.5 | -120 at DraftKings

Texans vs. Bears (-2.5)

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 1 p.m. ET

This is our first game of the week that nobody cares about. How exciting!

Anyways, the wrong team is favored in this one. Last week, a game in which the Bears were losing pretty much the entire time, Justin Fields only threw the ball 11 times. That is ludicrous in todays NFL, where passing is king. He did run the ball 8 times, but some of those were designed QB runs.

The Texans have looked frisky in their first two games, going 2-0 against the spread against two teams that were projected to be in the playoff race in the Colts and the Broncos. Granted, those two teams might just be bad, but it is not as though the Bears are some juggernaut. Give me the Texans to cover and win straight up.

Texans vs. Bears Pick: Texans +3 | -110 at PointsBet

Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Colts

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 1 p.m. ET

This is a tough one, as the Colts have looked dreadful in the first two weeks but have enough of a history of turning things around under head coach Frank Reich. The Colts haven’t won in Week 1 in his five-year tenure, nor has Reich ever won a game in Jacksonville. So, the Colts being 0-1-1 is basically on schedule.

The Chiefs defense, and especially pass-rush, looks invigorated as they have added some youth to the defense in the offseason. With that said, a full touchdown in Indianapolis is too rich for my blood, as I have faith in Reich to right the ship. I’ll lay the points with the home team.

Chiefs vs. Colts Pick: Colts +7 | -110 at PointsBet

Bills (-5.5) vs. Dolphins

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 1 p.m. ET

With both of these teams looking like legit contenders, this might be the game of the week. The Bills have now defeated the defending Super Bowl champion and last year’s AFC No. 1 seed in their two games so far, by a total score of 72-17.

The Dolphins are also 2-0, fresh off a wild comeback against the Ravens. Tua Tagovailoa has looked much better than I anticipated through two games, but the Dolphins won’t have receivers running wide open all game against the Bills like they did against the Ravens. The Bills stay hot in this one.

Bills vs. Dolphins Pick: Bills -5 | -113 at BetRivers

Lions vs. Vikings (-5.5)

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 1 p.m. ET

I’m not sure why we are giving the Vikings close to a touchdown in this one. The Lions have scored a combined 71 points through two games and have legitimately looked good on offense. Those are not a flukey 71 points, either. Now, they won’t continue to score over 35 points a game, of course, but schematically and talent-wise this offense is legit.

The Vikings probably aren’t as bad as they looked on Monday night against the Eagles, but they probably aren’t as good as they looked in Week 1 against the Packers either. The Lions could win this one outright and will keep this close regardless.

Lions vs. Vikings Pick: Lions +6 | -107 at PointsBet

Ravens (-3) vs. Patriots

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 1 p.m. ET

Bill Belichick is learning the hard way what life is like without the greatest QB of all time. The Patriots won last week, but their offense has been dreadful through two games. They have scored a combined 24 points, including only 7 points in Week 1 against a Dolphins team that just gave up 35 last week.

The Patriots aren’t nearly equipped to go bombs-away on the Ravens like the Dolphins did last week, so I will gladly take the points with the Ravens in this one.

Ravens vs. Patriots Pick: Ravens -3 | -105 at PointsBet

Bengals (-4.5) vs. Jets

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 1 p.m. ET

This is now the third game in a row in which the Bengals are favored by 4+ points, and yet they are 0-2 to show for it. With that said, the reason the Bengals have struggled to start is because their offensive line has been dreadful, and they have played two of the best defensive lines in football.

That latter part won’t be true in this game, as the Jets have one of the weakest defensive lines in the NFL. It feels risky backing the Bengals after two bad showings, but their offense should be worlds better against a bad Jets defense. I’ll accept that risk and lay the points with them.

Bengals vs. Jets Pick: Bengals -4.5 | -107 at PointsBet

Raiders (-2) vs. Titans

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 1 p.m. ET

Gross. Both of these teams are an equally disappointing 0-2. The Raiders blew a 20-0 halftime lead, at home last week to a Cardinals team that was ready to lay down and die. The Titans, meanwhile, gave the Giants their first Week 1 victory since 2016, and then in Week 2 got absolutely pounded by the Bills 41-10.

I admittedly don’t have a great feel for this one, but Titans head coach Mike Vrabel has a track-record of getting the Titans to bounce-back after rough losses in his six-year tenure as the Titans head coach. I’ll take the points with the home team.

Raiders vs. Titans Pick: Titans +2.5 | -110 at Caesars

Eagles (-6.5) vs. Commanders

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 1 p.m. ET

We’ve got a juicy matchup in this one. The Eagles look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders after their domination of the Vikings on Monday Night Football in Week 2, while Carson Wentz plays his first game against Philly since they benched then traded him in 2020.

A touchdown spread feels like a lot, but that is the play here. Wentz has been exactly as advertised through two games in Washington — capable of making spectacular throws, but also capable of perplexing decision-making and questionable awareness in the pocket.

Eagles vs. Commanders Pick: Eagles -6.5 | -103 at Tipico

Late Sunday NFL Slate

Jaguars vs. Chargers (-7)

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 4:05 p.m. ET

This is a game where the injury report is going to be extremely important, as Chargers QB Justin Herbert is currently nursing a rib injury. At of the time of this writing, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley said Herbert is “day-to-day” and that he could be back for this week.

With that said, I’ll take the points with the Jaguars here. They haven’t looked awful through two games, which is a step up for a franchise that has had the top pick in the NFL draft in consecutive years.

Jaguars vs. Chargers Pick: Jaguars +7 | -105 at WynnBET

Rams (-3.5) vs. Cardinals

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 4:25 p.m. ET

This is a tough game to project, as neither team has inspired much confidence through two games. The Rams, despite being defending champs, have looked quite beatable so far. The Rams almost blew a big lead last week against the Falcons, while the Cardinals have played seven quarters of awful football, but had a good fourth quarter to get the win last week.

I’ll begrudgingly take the Cardinals to keep this one within a field goal, but this game in general is a stay-away for me.

Rams vs. Cardinals Pick: Cardinals +4 | -110 at WynnBET

Falcons vs. Seahawks (-2)

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 4:25 p.m. ET

This is another game in which I think the wrong team is favored, as detailed here. It is likely that the Seahawks Week 1 victory against Denver will be the best game they play all year, as that game featured a level of energy unique to the Wilson reunion.

In reality, the Seahawks have gone six quarters without scoring a point on offense. Give me the Falcons straight up in this one, so obviously I like them to cover as well.

Falcons vs. Seahawks Pick: Falcons +2.5 | -112 at Tipico

Packers vs. Buccaneers (-2.5)

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 4:25 p.m. ET

The second straight game in which I believe the oddsmakers have this mixed up. Yes, Tom Brady is 2-0 against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers since he’s been on the Bucs, but this is not the same Tampa Bay team. Granted, it isn’t the same Packers team without Davante Adams, but the Bucs are dealing with a ton of injuries.

They have been missing (and will continue to miss in this game) multiple starting receivers and offensive linemen, and as a result the offense has struggled so far. Through two games they have scored a total of 39 points, and it doesn’t look to get any better this Sunday.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Pick: Packers +2.5 | -105 at Tipico

Sunday Night Football

49ers (-1) vs. Broncos

Sunday, Sept. 25 | 8:20 p.m. ET

Laughably, the Broncos opened as the favorites for this game. The market quickly adjusted as money flew in on the 49ers, to where it currently sits at the 49ers -1. The guess here is that this line will close more in favor of the 49ers, but for now I am sprinting to lock in the 49ers.

The Broncos offense has been a clunky, disorganized adventure almost every time they step on the field. You have to feel for quarterback Trey Lance being out for the season, but the 49ers won’t miss a beat with Jimmy Garoppolo taking over.

I’ll gladly lay the points with the 49ers here.

49ers vs. Broncos Pick: 49ers -1 | -107 at PointsBet

Monday Night Football

Cowboys vs. Giants (-2.5)

Monday, Sept. 26 | 8:15 p.m. ET

Ok, not the most exciting showdown in the world, but these teams have a combined record of 3-1! With that said, this game is difficult for me to handicap. Are the Giants really going to start 3-0? Are the Cowboys really going to play another good game without Dak Prescott?

Tough, but I lean the Cowboys here– mostly because of their defense. Their defensive line specifically has caused hell for two elite QBs in Tom Brady and Joe Burrow, and now they go against turnover-machine Daniel Jones.

Cowboys vs. Giants Pick: Cowboys +2.5 | -107 at PointsBet

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