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Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 5 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions – May 11, 2022

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 Odds

Warriors Moneyline-170
Grizzlies Moneyline+140
Warriors Win Percentage53%
Grizzlies Win Percentage46%
Warriors Spread-4
Grizzlies Spread+4
Warriors-Grizzlies Over / Under218.5
Game Date & TimeMay 11, 9:30 p.m. ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

The youthful energy and regular-season success of the Grizzlies was something to behold.

But now that we’re in the playoffs, we’re seeing that type of success doesn’t quite hold up to the huge advantage the Warriors have in playoff experience and veteran players.

This Memphis team is very good — and should be regarded as such — but the Grizzlies have been outmatched, out-coached and outplayed going into Game 5.

The loss of Ja Morant for what could be their final playoff game this year is the cherry on top of the less-than-ideal hand they were dealt. 

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 5 Betting Preview

Going into Game 5 of Warriors vs. Grizzlies, this series certainly has been one of a team absolutely trouncing the other night after night.

The only true dominant victory was Game 3 — Games 1 and 4 were single-possession victories for the Warriors, and Game 2 was a two-possession victory for Memphis.

If a couple shots roll differently or fouls play out differently in late game situations, we could certainly be looking at a 3-1 lead here for the Grizzlies.

But since that’s not the case, we have to look at Game 3 as the most indicative of the talent disparity between these two teams.

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The Power of Playoff Experience

The Warriors have been here and done this before. In particular, Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala have five Finals runs under their belts from the past seven years.

When the only person in the NBA with comparable playoff experience in the same time frame is LeBron James, it’s safe to say you’re breathing rarified air.

And that’s truly what it’s going to come down to here. The Warriors know how to win these games when their star players are banged up. and when whistles get tighter — although, that hasn’t been the case for the whistles in the playoffs this year.

The Grizzlies, on other hand, are a young team that’s almost completely lacking in relevant playoff experience.

While they certainly have youth on their side and have been able to punish the Warriors in transition when opportunities have occurred, the loss of Ja Morant completely changes the face of this Grizzlies team.

It means that they’ll need to play a much slower-paced game — a game that favors the Warriors greatly.

Getting to the Line

While there’s been much made about the Grizzlies’ ability to get to the line compared to the Warriors (and what that means for NBA reffing as a whole), the reality is that both teams have been equally adept at getting to the charity stripe.

Across four games, they’ve both attempted 81 free throws. But Ja Morant has been the primary generator of those free throws for Memphis, averaging 9.7 per game in the playoffs this year.

Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, without Morant’s ability to drive and finish or get fouled, their scoring is likely going to take a dip.

As will the threat of foul trouble for the Warriors players, which will in turn allow the Warriors to play more physical defense in transition and under the basket. 

While this series had the potential for going six or seven games at the onset, the loss of Memphis’ primary offensive weapon likely means the Warriors will close out this series in Game 5 on their opponent’s court.

With the reduced offensive ability of the Grizzlies (which may come with improved defense), the Warriors are going to be too much for them to slow down.

While we don’t traditionally take the moneyline in many NBA playoff games — they tend to be overly inflated in one direction — we’ll be taking the Warriors moneyline this time around as they look to close out the series.

It’s available for -170 at most books, but can be found at a superior line of -160 at Caesars.

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Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 5 Betting Pick

My official NBA betting pick for Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 5 is the Warriors moneyline.

Pick: Warriors ML | -160 at Caesars

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 5 Prediction

I’m expecting the Warriors to close out this series on the road.

They’ve shown themselves to be the superior team in most aspects, and the loss of Ja Morant will be too much of a blow for this young Grizzlies team.

Warriors win Game 5, 121-109.


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