The Sixers opened as a 1.5 point favorite for game 3. A bit of a surprise, but oddsmakers were clearly expecting Embiid to play. With Embiid still listed as out, the line jumped all the way to Heat -3. Oddsmakers clearly don’t have confidence in the Sixers to get the job done, even on their home court Friday night. And for good reason. Doc Rivers and James Harden have been a very disappointing duo for Philly this round.
Harden has yet to have a breakout game in the 2022 playoffs; something that Philly fans are desperately waiting for. Without that breakout, the Sixers need to rely on the likes of Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey to carry the load. Both are certainly capable of having their moments, but neither are established enough to instill confidence they can go out and win a game against this Heat team.
On the flip side, the Spo and Butler duo continue to shine in this series. The Heat’s no panic attitude and clutch shot making has allowed them to sustain and counter any run that Philly has made. Without Embiid on the court, Miami looks almost surgical in how they are tearing apart Philly’s defense. They are taking advantage of Deandre Jordan’s slow feet and killing him in the pick and roll game. So far, the Sixers haven’t been able to figure out how to stop the Heat from getting these wide open looks. And without Embiid coming back, time is running out for them to get it together.
Heat vs. Sixers Game 3 Betting Pick
A game like this is always hard to handicap. However, the combination of the series heading to Philly and the volatility that comes with Embiid’s status makes for plenty of opportunity to find value in your bets.
Philly has yet to find an answer for Bam Adebayo’s presence down low. They’ve thrown just about all 4 of their backup centers at him and he continues to be a force down low; recording 24/12/4 and 23/9/3 in games 1 and 2. For this bet, we’d have to make an assumption that Embiid isn’t playing. However, even if he is, I don’t see it changing much. I’d worry about how effective he’ll be and what will be his willingness to hang down low after such a painful injury.
Without Embiid, Doc Rivers has shown a reluctance to mix up looks or lineups to try to get a spark from his team. Philly fans have been asking for a small-ball, run and gun style offense; which could hopefully neutralize a big man like Bam. It remains to be seen how that could actually work in the game, but his aversion to trying has raised frustration. Absent an epiphany by Rivers on how to stop him, the opportunity is there for Adebayo to continue his dominance against the under-sized Sixers.
I love the value we’re getting here on Bam Adebayo’s Points, Rebounds Assists total Using OddsJam, I found over 31.5 at -115. Currently this bet is -139 on the OddsJam Perfect Line