Heat vs. Sixers Game 3 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions – May 6

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OddsJam StaffMay 6, 2022, 03:04 PM

Heat vs. Sixers Game 3 Odds

Heat Moneyline-139
Sixers Moneyline+130
Heat Win Percentage57%
Sixers Win Percentage43%
Heat Spread-3.0
Sixers Spread+3.0
Heat-Sixers Over/Under210
Game Date & TimeMay 6, 7:00 p.m. ET
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

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Heat vs. Sixers Game 3 Betting Preview

This series heads to Philadelphia after Miami rolled to a 16 point victory Wednesday night, giving the Heat a commanding 2-0 series lead. While the Sixers kept it close for the most part, the Heat always countered to keep Philly at arms length. It’s becoming clear that Philly just doesn’t have the talent to keep up with the Heat’s relentless offense and stout defense. 

After a poor showing in Miami, Philly is looking to get a much needed boost by playing on their home court Friday night. But, that boost was dampened as Joel Embiid was still listed as OUT on the Thursday night injury report. By all reports, there is still hope the All-NBA Center can take the court Friday, but the hope is dwindling as we get closer to game time.

The Sixers opened as a 1.5 point favorite for game 3. A bit of a surprise, but oddsmakers were clearly expecting Embiid to play. With Embiid still listed as out, the line jumped all the way to Heat -3. Oddsmakers clearly don’t have confidence in the Sixers to get the job done, even on their home court Friday night. And for good reason. Doc Rivers and James Harden have been a very disappointing duo for Philly this round.

Harden has yet to have a breakout game in the 2022 playoffs; something that Philly fans are desperately waiting for. Without that breakout, the Sixers need to rely on the likes of Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey to carry the load. Both are certainly capable of having their moments, but neither are established enough to instill confidence they can go out and win a game against this Heat team. 

On the flip side, the Spo and Butler duo continue to shine in this series. The Heat’s no panic attitude and clutch shot making has allowed them to sustain and counter any run that Philly has made. Without Embiid on the court, Miami looks almost surgical in how they are tearing apart Philly’s defense. They are taking advantage of Deandre Jordan’s slow feet and killing him in the pick and roll game. So far, the Sixers haven’t been able to figure out how to stop the Heat from getting these wide open looks. And without Embiid coming back, time is running out for them to get it together.

Heat vs. Sixers Game 3 Betting Pick

A game like this is always hard to handicap. However, the combination of the series heading to Philly and the volatility that comes with Embiid’s status makes for plenty of opportunity to find value in your bets. 

Philly has yet to find an answer for Bam Adebayo’s presence down low. They’ve thrown just about all 4 of their backup centers at him and he continues to be a force down low; recording 24/12/4 and 23/9/3 in games 1 and 2. For this bet, we’d have to make an assumption that Embiid isn’t playing. However, even if he is, I don’t see it changing much. I’d worry about how effective he’ll be and what will be his willingness to hang down low after such a painful injury.

Without Embiid, Doc Rivers has shown a reluctance to mix up looks or lineups to try to get a spark from his team. Philly fans have been asking for a small-ball, run and gun style offense; which could hopefully neutralize a big man like Bam. It remains to be seen how that could actually work in the game, but his aversion to trying has raised frustration. Absent an epiphany by Rivers on how to stop him, the opportunity is there for Adebayo to continue his dominance against the under-sized Sixers. 

I love the value we’re getting here on Bam Adebayo’s Points, Rebounds Assists total Using OddsJam, I found over 31.5 at -115. Currently this bet is -139 on the OddsJam Perfect Line

Pick: Bam Adebayo Points+Rebounds+Assists (PRA) over 31.5 | -115 at BetMGM

Heat vs. Sixers Game Heat 3 Prediction

I’ve been searching far and wide to figure out a way the Sixers can pull off this upset without Embiid. Will the home court advantage be enough? Will Harden go nuclear and match his career playoff high 45 points? Either way I slice it, I just don’t have the confidence in the Sixers to pull it off, without Embiid. Embiid on the court will no doubt jolt the home crowd into a frenzy. However, if he’s a no-go, I expect a lot of trepidation from the Philly faithful in the building.

The Sixers have won all of 1 quarter this series; Q2 of game 1. In that quarter they relied on a huge run, led by Maxey and Harris. To be competitive in this game, they’ll need a similar blueprint. I’d expect a little bit more pace from the Sixers. Their half court sets have been brutal to watch, both offensively and defensively.

It seems easy in theory, just out run and out shoot the Heat. The only problem with that is every run Philly’s had this series has been countered, and then some, by Miami. The Heat’s experience and talent advantage will continue to win out in game 3. 

Prediction: Heat, 118 – Sixers, 112

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