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The best bets and resources to make you more profitable
|Grizzlies Win Percentage||52.8%|
|Warriors Win Percentage||47.2%|
|Grizzlies-Warriors Over / Under||218|
|Game Date & Time||May 13, 10 p.m. ET|
Let’s get this out of the way: there’s absolutely no way anyone could have predicted the almost hard-to-watch beatdown that the Grizzlies would put on the Warriors in Game 5. They won by almost 50, and even that score didn’t quite indicate just how one-sided that game was.
The big question is: was that a legitimate indication of who the Grizzlies are without Ja Morant this season (as they’ve shown time and again in the regular season) or was that just the most off of off nights from a Warriors team that turned the ball over a ton and wasted numerous possessions?
Going into Game 6, the safe pick would be to take the Warriors, for a lot of the reasons we’ve talked about in other previews. And that’s exactly what I’m going to do. They have more playoff experience, they have (at least on paper) a significant talent advantage, they have a coaching advantage, and they have the second best home record in basketball at 31-10 (behind only the Suns at 32-9).
Considering the Warriors lost 11 more games in total than the Suns, there’s something very real to be said about their home court advantage and the type of crowd and energy that permeates the Chase Center.
The Grizzlies have proven that they’re legitimate contenders, and while there are real questions to be asked about whether the “Ewing Theory” (in which a team’s best player may not necessarily be the best player for that team) applies to Ja Morant, they’ve certainly earned their place as the #2 team in the West this year. That being said, Game 5 was, for all intents and purposes, the definition of an anomaly.
After averaging 108 PPG in their previous 4 games against the Warriors, the Grizz exploded for 134 – and that was with their scoring slowing down late as they put in their bench unit. The Warriors didn’t shoot awfully, but due to a high number of fouls and turnovers, they had a full 19 less FGA compared to the Grizzlies – that doesn’t fully explain the gap in scoring, but if they had scored at the same rate (45%) over those 19 FGA, they would have, at a minimum, put 17 more points on the board.
While I can’t just say that’s what they would have done, it helps illustrate just how many points the Warriors prevented for themselves due to careless turnovers and touch fouls, before even getting into the points they gave up on the other end when plays would break down or the Grizzlies would get the ball out in transition for an easy bucket.
In the interest of having new blood in the Western Conference Finals, and seeing the top 2 teams in the West match-up, I’d like to pick the Grizzlies to win Game 6 and earn themselves a Game 7 on their home court. But the Warriors should and will be too much for them, and will punch their ticket to a Western Conference Finals match-up with the winner of the Mavericks/Suns series.
There’s a general shared confidence that the Warriors close out this series in Game 6, so I won’t be taking the moneyline – the odds aren’t anywhere near ideal enough to risk the chance of an upset. Instead, I’ll be taking Over 219.5 Points, available for +116 with FanDuel.
Through five games thus far, the combined scores have exceeded 219.5 on three occasions, and, on average, the total score for games played on the Warriors home court this season have totaled 226.5 points. Even if the Grizzlies try to slow this game down and work within the paint, I expect the Warriors to get hot from beyond the arc on their home court and cruise to the over for total points fairly easily.
My official NBA betting pick for Grizzlies/Warriors Game 6 is over 219.5 Total Points. You can get it at +116 with FanDuel.
The Warriors win this one in front of their home crowd. The Ja Morant-less Grizzlies just aren’t there yet, and the Warriors will punch their ticket to the Western Conference Finals 123-115.