Grizzlies vs. Warriors Game 3 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions – May 7, 2022

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Game 3 Odds

Coming out of Game 2 of this series, we’ve definitely established a better idea of how these two teams match up and what each team needs to do to win games and this series. While the Memphis Grizzlies were able to close the game out, there wasn’t a point where they necessarily felt like the better team. But they were more successful at the line — they shot better from 3, and they got the stops they needed to late in the game to seal their victory.

That being said, we can’t expect this Golden State Warriors team to shoot 18% from beyond the arc again. It’s not their identity as a team, and even with that abysmal 3-point shooting night, the Warriors were within inches of stealing the first two games of the series despite being the lower seed. 

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Game 3 Betting Preview

Going into Game 3, there are external factors that can certainly play into how this game is going to shake out. The big questions: will Dillon Brooks’ suspension throw the Grizzlies off? Will the loss of one of the Warriors’ best guard defenders (if not the best) in Gary Payton II free Ja Morant and Desmond Bane up to be even more willing to demand the ball for ISO situations? Will the home crowd for the Warriors be too much for a Grizzlies team that is largely made up of young players who don’t have a ton of playoff reps?

These are all things that we need to think about when making this pick because this series has been a back-and-forth one so far and we don’t necessarily see that changing today.

With that in mind, we have a couple of recommended bets that we’re going to go with today. For starters, while we don’t always recommend betting the spread for these playoff games (as blowouts can get out of control early, and the lines are often closer than we’d like to find value), this is absolutely a game that we like looking at the spread for. For Game 3, we’ll be taking the Grizzlies +6.5, available for +100 at PointsBet.

The thinking behind this bet is fairly simple: Game 1 was a 1-point affair at the end, Game 2 was a 5-point affair and each game has been back-and-forth throughout to the point where neither team has been able to get a significant lead for long.

Do we think the Warriors are going to win this game? Most likely yes, but the Grizzlies’ ability to get to the line and Morant’s ability in particular to get out in transition on loose balls or turnovers is a huge factor here. They’re able to get a bucket or force the Warriors to foul Morant or a secondary ball-handler means they’ll be able to slow the game down when needed to stop the bleeding if the Warriors hit multiple threes in a row on them. Many Warriors opponents in the past haven’t had that luxury, so one 3 made quickly turns into three or four, and then the game gets out of hand.

With the Warriors averaging 14.4 turnovers per game, and the Grizzlies averaging 29.9 free throw attempts per game, there’s a strong possibility that neither team will get too far ahead of the other and turn this into a double-digit blowout. 

In the playoffs this year, Ja Morant is averaging 26.3/8.6/10.1 and against the Warriors through two games, he’s averaging 40.5/8.5/9. While those numbers against the Warriors are absurd (even the standard averages are ridiculously good for a third-year player), I expect his averages against the Warriors to drop a bit in Game 3.

There’s a lot of space between his playoff averages this year (45 PRA) and his averages against the Warriors (58 PRA), so for our bonus bet, we’ll be picking Ja Morant Over 48.5 PRA, available for +148 at FanDuel.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Game 3 Betting Pick

My official NBA betting pick for Grizzlies/Warriors Game 3 is Grizzlies +6.5. You can get this for +100 at PointsBet.

I also like Ja Morant o48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists; available for +148 at FanDuel.

Pick: Grizzlies +6.5 | +100 at PointsBet

Bonus Pick: Ja Morant Over 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists | +148 at FanDuel

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Game 3 Prediction

Game 3 should go down to the wire just as the previous two games have, but the Warriors will correct their 3-point shooting woes and the Grizzlies won’t be able to close the gap. We’re taking Warriors 112-108 for a 2-1 series lead.