Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Game 5 Betting Preview: Odds, Picks, Best Series Bets and Props

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OddsJam StaffApril 27, 2022, 03:40 PM

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Game 5 Betting Preview

TeamOdds
Nuggets Moneyline+343
Warriors Moneyline-413
Nuggets Spread+8.5
Warriors Spread-8.5
Nuggets/Warriors Game Total225.5
Game Date & TimeWed Apr 27th, 10 p.m. ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

Props to the Nuggets, who battled in game 4 to avoid the sweep. Now, they have to go back to San Francisco to see if they can keep their season alive. This game is being played on Wednesday, April 27th at 10 p.m. ET.

Now that the Warriors are back home with a chance to move on, they are pretty heavy favorites here. The spread is Warriors -8.5 with the over/under at 225.5.

I’ll give the Nuggets credit- they were leading pretty much the entire way in game 4, only for the Warriors to take the lead in the closing minutes. At that point, I, along with I’m guessing the rest of America, was expecting the Warriors to close it out and complete the sweep.

Instead, the Nuggets battled back. They got 3 straight stops, 3 straight buckets, and closed the game on a 7-0 run to win by 5. Of course, the Nuggets were aided by some questionable lineup decisions by Warriors head coach Steve Kerr once Draymond Green fouled out, but it was still impressive resolve.

The Nuggets won that game, mostly, on the back of Nikola Jokic. He finished the game with 37 points, and was mostly unstoppable.

Along with Jokic, they also got big performances from Monte Morris (24 points), Aaron Gordon (21 points), plus a fun heat check barrage of 3-pointers from rookie Bones Hyland in the 2nd quarter when he made 3 straight 3’s.

Overall, the Nuggets won the game because they scored pretty much whenever they wanted on offense.

On the Warriors side, there still isn’t any concern in this current series against the Nuggets, still one win away from clinching the series after a hard fought loss in game 4.

In reality, they probably would have won the game if Green wasn’t in foul trouble. He finished the game plus 18 in terms of plus/minus (in a 5 point loss), but only played roughly 34 minutes due to the aforementioned foul trouble. He fouled out with about 2 minutes left.

His replacement, Otto Porter, was a disaster. In roughly 15.5 minutes of play, Porter was a -16 with 4 fouls, and of course had the costly turnover on the in-bounds pass.

The Warriors also started slow, especially Steph Curry. He turned it on late, but in the 1st half Curry only had 10 points on 3 of 11 shooting, going 1 of 6 from deep. As a team the Warriors shot only 4 of 15 from 3-point range in the 1st half.

Of course, the Warriors still managed to score 121 points, and that was with poor shooting Curry and rising star Jordan Poole. That just shows how good this team is.

Now that the Warriors are home and got a cold shooting performance out of way for both Steph and Poole in game 4, it’s hard to bet against them in game 5. 8.5 points is a lot, but the Warriors covered that with ease in games 1 and 2, both at home.

So, I’m riding with the Warriors here. I bet them to cover 8.5 at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Game 5 Betting Pick:

Warriors -8.5 | -110 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Game 5 Betting Prediction:

My prediction is that the Warriors win this game 121-112.

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Game 4 Betting Preview

TeamOdds
Denver Nuggets Moneyline+154
Golden State Warriors Moneyline-172
Denver Nuggets Spread+4
Golden State Warriors Spread-4
Nuggets/Warriors Game Total224
Game, Date & TimeSun Apr 24th, 3:30PM ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

The Nuggets put up a valiant effort in game 3, but still came up short because this Warriors team has essentially turned into Thanos- Inevitable. The Nuggets will try to avoid the sweep in game 4, where the series continues in Denver on Sunday, April 24th at 3:30PM ET.

Unsurprisingly, the Warriors are once again favored in this game and to complete the sweep. They are 4 point favorites, with the over/under at 224.

There isn’t much left to say regarding this series at this point. The Nuggets had a chance to make the series interesting in game 3, but they couldn’t close it out. Instead, the inevitable Warriors took control late in the 4th and that was that.

Nikola Jokic finally had a good game against the stellar defense of Draymond Green, but was stripped in the final seconds to seal the loss for the Nuggets. I’m just proud of him for not getting ejected of his 3rd playoff game in the last 4 games.

Overall, it’s hard to fault the Nuggets too much for (most likely) getting swept out of the playoffs for a 2nd straight year. Injuries have ravaged them, and they’ve also played two incredible teams.

The Suns made the finals last year, while this Warriors team looks like a juggernaut.

Speaking of the Warriors, my guess here is that they do, in fact, complete the sweep. They are clicking on all cylinders and look downright scary. The Nuggets tried to throw a punch that almost landed, but instead the Warriors were too much in the end.

With the emergence of Jordan Poole, the re-emergence of a now healthy Klay Thompson, Steph Curry being Steph Curry, and Draymond playing like the best defender in the league, there just isn’t much Denver can do.

As a matter of fact, there might not be much any team can do if the Warriors are going to click like this. So, I won’t get cute and I’ll just take the Warriors moneyline here.

I was debating taking the spread, but instead decided to just roll with the moneyline to play it safe. I do think the Warriors cover, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nuggets kept it close. So, moneyline it is.

I bet it on DraftKings at -170. The guess here is that the Nuggets will again put up a fight, but in the end the Warriors will continue to be too much.

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Game 4 Pick:

My official NBA betting pick for this game is to take the Warriors moneyline. I bet this on DraftKings Sportsbook at -170 odds.

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Game 4 Prediction:

My prediction is that the Warriors win this game 117-110

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Game 3 Betting Preview

TeamOdds
Denver Nuggets Moneyline+106
Golden State Warriors Moneyline-117
Denver Nuggets Spread+1.5
Golden State Warriors Spread-1.5
Nuggets/Warriors Game Total223.5
Game, Date & TimeThu Apr 21st, 10PM ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

The Warriors took a commanding 2-0 series lead after two straight games in which they completely throttled the Nuggets. For game 3 we head East to the Mile High City, where the Nuggets are hosting the Warriors. This game is being played on Thursday, April 21st at 10PM ET.

Even after two straight blowouts in which the Warriors looked incredible, they are only slight favorites in game 3. The point spread is currently Warriors -1.5, with the over/under set at 223.5.

I was initially shocked to see the spread so low. I’ve seen nothing from this Nuggets team that shows they should only be 1.5 point underdogs to the Warriors. The Warriors have been an absolute machine through two games in the playoffs, and none of that success so far is a fluke.

Maybe Jordan Poole doesn’t shoot so well, and maybe Jokic plays better in his home stadium even though he’s going against one of, if not the, best defenders in the NBA in Draymond Green. The Nuggets can also hope that Steph Curry and Klay Thompson don’t shoot as well as they did in game 2.

That is a lot of maybe’s, and a lot of if’s. The more likely scenario is that the Warriors continue to out-class the Nuggets.

I also don’t like the narrative that Jokic, as the back-to-back MVP, is going to will his team to victory and that he won’t go down 3-0. This exact scenario happened last season against the Suns, in which the Nuggets were easily swept out of the playoffs.

As good as Jokic is, and he’s awesome, there isn’t enough chatter about the poor sportsmanship he has displayed a concerning number of times. He has now been ejected from 2 of his last 3 playoff games- all losses- and who can forget when he seriously injured Marcus Morris for months when he shoved him in the back.

So, unsurprisingly, I absolutely love getting the Warriors -1.5 on Caesars. This is my stone-cold, McSlam lock of the game.

I haven’t even mentioned the fact that Steph came off the bench in games 1 and 2, and the Warriors still blew out the Nuggets. So, yea, I love the Warriors here.

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Game 3 Pick:

My official NBA betting pick for this game is to take the Warriors -1.5. I bet this at -110 odds on Caesars Sportsbook.

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Game 3 Prediction:

My prediction for this NBA playoff game is that the Warriors are going to win 117-105.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Game 2 Betting Preview

Golden State Warriors Moneyline-282
Denver Nuggets Moneyline+244
Golden State Warriors Spread-7
Denver Nuggets Spread+7
Warriors/Nuggets Game Total224
Game Date & TimeMon Apr 18th, 10:00PM ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

After a game 1 bloodbath in which the Warriors blew out the Nuggets, the series continues in San Francisco at 10PM ET on Monday, April 18th.

The Warriors looked great in game 1, so because of that are 7 point favorites in game 2, with the total at 224.

The Warriors put the rest of the league on notice with how good they looked in game 1. I try not to react too much from game 1s, but the Warriors looked downright scary.

The final score was “only” a 16 point victory, but the Warriors were dominant. The scary part of the victory is they blew the Nuggets out in a game in which both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson scored fewer than 20 points.

Instead, it was a 30 point outburst from blossoming superstar Jordan Poole. He put on a phenomenal showing in his first ever playoff game. He might not look this good in every game, of course, but the good part for the Warriors is they don’t need him to.

It is understandable for Steph to struggle in his first game back from a lengthy absence, and he should figure to get better and better with more game time. He played just under 22 minutes and shot 5-13 from the field.

The Nuggets didn’t look horrible or anything like that, which does not bode well for them for this series. With injuries to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, they just unfortunately don’t have the talent to hang with the Warriors.

Outside of Jokic, they don’t have much. So, I am riding with the Warriors to once again cover in game 2.

I got them at -6.5 on BetMGM, which represents good value as the OddsJam Perfect Line prices this total at Warriors -7. So, I love getting the extra point here.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick:

My official NBA betting pick for this game is to take the Warriors -6.5. I bet this on BetMGM Sportsbook at -110 odds.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Prediction:

My prediction for this game is that the Warriors win 113-99.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Game 1 Betting Preview

TeamOdds
Golden State Warriors Moneyline-242
Denver Nuggets Moneyline+212
Golden State Warriors Spread-6
Denver Nuggets Spread+6
Warriors/Nuggets Total223
Game Date & TimeSat Apr 16th, 8:30PM ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

You will see the full series preview and analysis below, so I’ll keep the game preview itself relatively short. I’ll provide my official prediction, and one player prop as well.

The main news to come out of this game is that Steph Curry is back, albeit with a minutes restriction that Kerr won’t confirm the specific amount of. With that news, the Warriors are the favorite here, with the point spread at Warriors -6 and the total set at 223.

With Steph back, I absolutely love backing the Warriors. I think they are the more talented than the Nuggets, by far. We’ve seen the Nuggets ceiling with Jokic and this supporting cast when the Nuggets got swept out from the playoffs last year.

Thanks to line shopping, I was able to get them at -4.5 on WynnBET Sportsbook. With Curry back, I am expecting a huge energy from the Warriors team and also home crowd, so I love getting them to cover.

For my player prop, I found a really valuable bet fading Draymond Greens assist total.

His prop is priced at 7.5, a number in which he has only gone over once in his last 10 games. With Steph back, Draymond will admittedly have a higher opportunity for assists, but he will also have less of a playmaking duty.

His assist stats aren’t dramatically different with or without Steph, so I think this is a great bet. I got it on Caesars at -105.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Game 1 Picks:

My official NBA betting picks for this game is to take the Warriors to cover the spread. I got the Warriors -4.5 at -108 odds on WynnBET Sportsbook, and I like it at the +6 number it’s at now.

My player prop for this game is taking Draymond Green to go under 7.5 assists. I bet this at -105 on Caesars Sportsbook.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Game 1 Prediction:

My prediction for this game is that the Warriors are going to win 123-110.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Series Odds & Analysis

TeamOdds
Golden State Warriors Series Odds-230
Denver Nuggets Series Odds+190
Golden State Warriors Game Spread-1.5 Games
Denver Nuggets Game Spread+1.5 Games
Projected Game Total: 7 Games+190
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

In this article, we have the 3 seed Golden State Warriors up against the 6 seed Denver Nuggets. Of course, as the higher seed the Warriors will have home court advantage in this series.

The unfortunate part of this series is that injuries are going to play a huge role in the outcome. The biggest name, of course, is Steph Curry and his return from a foot injury.

When he was first injured his foot he was projected to return for the start of the playoffs. But, as of the time of this writing, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has not yet confirmed whether Steph will play in game 1 or not. Obviously, whether Curry plays or not will have a massive impact on this series.

No. 3 Warriors vs No. 6 Nuggets Betting Preview

  • Head-to-Head Regular Season Record: Nuggets 3-1
  • Golden State Warriors Regular Season Record: 53-29
  • Denver Nuggets Regular Season Record: 48-34

Golden State Warriors Analysis: Steph Curry…. Pretty Important!

I can’t state enough how important it is for the Warriors to get Steph Curry back, but I’ll try. Curry has played in 64 games this season and the Warriors are 45-19 in those games. If you isolate the Warriors Net Rating in those 64 games, they would lead the NBA by a mile. So, yeah, that Steph Curry is pretty important.

If you do the math, that means that the warriors went 9-10 without Steph. That is actually better than I thought, but they were aided by an easy end to the season in which they won 5 straight, 4 of which were against teams below .500.

Prior to that 5 game win streak, the Warriors were 1-8 in the first 9 games Steph missed since he injured his foot on March 16th.

If there are any positives to take away from Steph missing this time, it would be the emergence of young stud Jordan Poole, and more importantly the re-emergence of old stars Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.

Both players started slow in their return from injuries, with Klay obviously having a much longer absence, but have really come on as of late. Those two vets, combined with rising stars in Jordan Poole and Jonathan Kuminga, make this Warriors team as deep as we’ve seen since the beginning of their dynastic run.

If the Warriors get a healthy Steph back then they might be the betting favorites to win the whole thing, even over the Suns. That is how good he is and also how good they are in general.

Denver Nuggets Analysis: How Far Can One Player Take a Team?

Now if the Nuggets were fully healthy as well, these two teams might be the two best teams in the NBA. My hot take was that the Nuggets would have won the title last year if Jamal Murray didn’t tear up his knee.

We’ll never know, though, as fate would not have it that way. It was a devastating injury to Murray, who has still not returned and won’t return until next regular season.

So, the Nuggets have been missing their 2nd best player for the entire season, and they have also been missing their 3rd best player in Michael Porter Jr for pretty much this entire season as well due to a back injury.

It is impressive what the Nuggets have been able to do this regular season to finish with a 48-34 record and avoid the play-in game, considering they were missing their 2nd and 3rd best player for the majority of the season.

What that means, though, is that this roster lacks talent outside of likely back-to-back MVP winner Nikola Jokic. Jokic is flat out amazing, and it is to his credit that the Nuggets have been as good as they are.

The Nuggets roster is solid, with Monte Morris, Will Barton, and Aaron Gordon they certainly aren’t horrible, but they are just missing that star-level, game-changing talent in Murray and Porter Jr.

We’ve seen this teams ceiling with Jokic and a bunch of average to below average teammates. They won a hard fought first round series last year against the Portland Trail Blazers, who were ready to implode, before gracefully being swept out of the playoffs by the Suns in the next round.

I’m certainly not projecting a Warriors sweep in this series, because at least the Nuggets have had all season to prepare for missing these players, but I still do think the Nuggets are out-classed here. My prediction is that Curry will end up playing in game 1 and be healthy for the rest of the series as well.

So, with that said, my favorite bet for this series is to take the Warriors game spread -1.5. The best odds I found this on was Caesars at +100.

Taking the Warriors straight up to win the series had too much juice, at -240 odds, but I did like the value of the game spread. My guess is that this will end up being a 6 game series. The only potential wrench in all this is if Curry is out longer than expected, but as of right now I’m guessing that he will be healthy for the series.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Series Pick:

My official NBA betting pick for this series is to take the Warriors game spread -1.5. I got this at +100 odds on Caesars Sportsbook.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Series Prediction:

My prediction for this series is that the Warriors are going to win in 6 games. You can bet this exact outcome at +400 odds on Caesars Sportsbook.

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