Game 7 (?) Lakers vs Warriors Betting Preview – What are the Odds?

On Friday, we have Game 6 of Warriors vs Lakers. If the Lakers win, they move on to face the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals.

I’ll pose an interesting question, and there’s a clear mathematical answer to it… What would the odds be on Lakers vs Warriors Game 7 assuming the Warriors win Game 6?

To answer this question, we need to know two things:

1. What’s the probability the Warriors win Game 6?
2. What’s the probability the Warriors win the series?

The Golden State Warriors need to win back to back games to reach the Western Conference Finals. Let’s say that:

• A = the probability the Warriors win Game 6
• B = the probability the Warriors win Game 7
• C = the probability the Warriors win the series

It’s pretty simple… A x B = C. If the Warriors were 25% to win both Game 6 and Game 7, then they’d be 25% to win the series (50% x 50% = 25%).

Lakers vs Warriors Game 6 Betting Odds

As seen on the NBA Odds Page, the Warriors have an average price of +121 moneyline odds on Friday in Game 6. They’re the underdogs in Los Angeles.

Obviously, the Lakers could close out the Series on Friday in LA. Thus, sportsbooks haven’t posted odds for Game 7 – we don’t even know if there’s going to be a Game 7 yet…

The Warriors are underdogs in Game 6, so, according to the market, they’re less than 50% to win on Friday. That should make sense – Golden State is the underdog.

We can use a No Vig Calculator to determine the exact win probability for Golden State in Game 6. Across the sports betting market, the average price on Warriors moneyline is +121 odds. The average price on the Lakers moneyline is -141 odds.

As seen in the screenshot above, according to the betting market, the Warriors are 43.61% to win on Friday. Again, that makes sense – the Warriors are the underdogs in Game 6.

Lakers vs Warriors Series Betting Odds

Although sportsbooks don’t have odds posted for a potential Game 7 of Warriors vs Lakers, they do has “Series” markets. As seen on Caesars sportsbook, the Lakers are -225 odds to win the series. The Warriors are +185 odds.

Thus, the Lakers are roughly -200 odds to win the series against Golden State (e.g. 2:1 betting favorites). A 2:1 betting favorite simply means 2/3 to win the series, or 66.67%.

Using a no vig calculator, we see that the market is giving the Lakers a 66.36% probability of winning the series against Golden State (odds via Caesars sportsbook).

We now know the following…

• A = the probability the Warriors win Game 6 = 43.61%
• B = the probability the Warriors win Game 7 (STILL UNKNOWN)
• C = the probability the Warriors win the series = 33.64%

We also know that A x B = C, so we can back out the win probability for the Warriors in a potential Game 7.

43.61% x B = 33.64%, so B = 77.14%.

Thus, according to the betting market, the Warriors have a 77.14% win probability in Game 7 assuming they can take Game 6.

Finally, we plug this Game 7 win percentage into an Odds Converter Calculator. According to the market, assuming the Warriors win Game 6, they’ll be massive favorites in Game 7 at -337 moneyline odds.