Durant or Tatum? Six Sharp Player Prop Bets for Thursday, May 11

In this betting preview, I’ll be running through six sharp player prop picks for today. I have NBA and NHL bets.

Pick #1: Jayson Tatum Under 30.5 Points on ParlayPlay in Celtics vs 76ers

My first NBA pick for May 11 is Jayson Tatum Under 30.5 Points on ParlayPlay. I found this NBA player prop on the Odds Screen.

As seen in the screenshot above, ParlayPlay is the only platform setting Tatum’s line @ 30.5. PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy and every sportsbook has Tatum’s line set 29.5 points.

Follow the data – that’s how you actually make money sports betting… You look for value & inefficiencies in the market.

As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. In this case, all data points (e.g. bookmakers posting odds) have Tatum’s line @ 29.5 points, so ParlayPlay is too high. Hit the under!

Pick #2: Kevin Durant Over 5.5 Assists on ParlayPlay in Suns vs Nuggets

My second NBA pick is for Suns vs Nuggets. I locked in Durant over 5.5 assists on ParlayPlay.

This player prop was found using the OddsJam Positive EV Tool (bet in bold/green = profitable). The Positive EV Tool is pretty simple to use – you just hit the betting picks in green & bold. So, in the screenshot above, OddsJam is recommending that you bet Durant Over 5.5 Assists on either No House Advantage (black logo) or ParlayPlay.

The Positive EV Tool is just based in raw data – sportsbook odds… Long story short, OddsJam takes the B.S. and “fluff” out of sports betting.

ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform – basically, you need to win over 53.2% of your prop bets (e.g. over/unders) to make money on this DFS platform. Most bettors have no “edge” (e.g. advantage). Having no advantage means you’ll win 50%, lose 50% of your player prop over/unders.

I broke down the math behind ParlayPlay in this Google Spreadsheet. Regardless, this ROI table summarizes ParlayPlay pretty well… Remember that winning 50% of your player prop over/unders means that you have zero advantage.

Anyways, let’s get back to Kevin Durant over 5.5 Assists. As seen in the screenshot below from the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer, Durant over 5.5 Assists has a win rate of 53.47%. Since the win rate is above 53.22%, this player prop bet on ParlayPlay is profitable!

It’s clear that Durant over 5.5 Assists has a win rate above 50%, as all sportsbooks have Durant’s over heavily favored, juiced to roughly -140 odds. The data (e.g. books posting odds) is telling you that Durant’s over is a lot more likely than his under, and that’s exactly what we’re looking for on fixed payout platforms like ParlayPlay.

Pick #3: Tyrese Maxey Under 22.0 Points + Assists on ParlayPlay for 76ers vs Celtics

Next, I’m on Tyrese Maxey under 22.0 Points + Assists. This play was found using the Odds Screen. As seen in the screenshot below, all other sportsbooks have Maxey’s line @ 21.5 Points + Assists. ParlayPlay is too high relative to every other data point, so we want to take the under on ParlayPlay.

I have six total picks in my ParlayPlay entry. My six picks are:

1. Tyrese Maxey Under 22.0 Pts + Ast in 76ers vs Celtics
2. Kevin Durant Over 5.5 Assists in Suns vs Nuggets
3. Jaden Schwartz Under 2.5 Shots on Goal in Stars vs Kraken
4. Nico Hischier Over 2.5 Shots on Goal in Devils vs Hurricanes
5. Jayson Tatum Under 30.5 Points in 76ers vs Celtics
6. Malcolm Brogdon Over 18.0 Points + Rebounds in 76ers vs Celtics

I’m staking $55 to win $1,375 if all six player props hit. If I go 5/6, then I’ll have a total payout of $137.50 (2.5x). If I hit 4/6, then I’ll have a payout of $27.50. Once again, ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform. I made this full tutorial video on ParlayPlay.