Do the Lakers have Hope? The Exact Probability the Lakers Beat the Nuggets in Game 7

LeBron and the Los Angeles Lakers are down 3-0 against Denver in the Western Conference Finals.

No team in NBA history has come back from down 3-0. However, LeBron is no stranger to making history… In 2016, he led the only 3-1 comeback in the NBA Finals history to beat the Golden State Warriors.

Does LeBron have any magic left in the tank? In this betting education article, we’re going to use math and data to calculate the probability that the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference Finals. The chances are small, but not zero.

Lakers vs Nuggets Series Odds: What are Sportsbooks Saying?

First, we turn to sportsbook odds to calculate the probability that the Lakers win the Western Conference Finals.

On DraftKings sportsbook, the Nuggets are -2500 odds to win the series and the LA Lakers are +1200 odds.

Obviously, the Nuggets are big favorites on the sportsbooks; they’re up 3-0. However, +1200 underdogs win all the time in sports, so markets are clearly pricing a non-trivial probability that the Lakers win the series.

We can use a No Vig Sports Betting Calculator to back out the win probability for each team based on the odds on DraftKings sportsbook. According to the betting market (e.g. odds) on DraftKings, the Nuggets are 92.59% to win the series, and the Lakers have a 7.41% win probability.

This sports betting calculator is pretty simple – it converts odds to probabilities. Every odd has an associated probability, just like every fraction has an associated probability (e.g. 3/4 = 75%).

As an example, if the Nuggets were -200 to win the series, then they’d be 2:1 betting favorites (e.g. 2/3 to win, or 66.67%): a -200 odds favorite just means 2/3 or 66.67% to win. A -300 odds favorite means a 3:1 betting favorite (e.g. 3/4 to win, or 75%).

The reason you trust sportsbook odds is because this is where real money is being put down. Sports bettors are wagering on the Lakers at +1200 odds and the Nuggets at -2500.

Anybody can say “Oh, the Nuggets are 99.9% to win the series,” but that opinion is useless because they’re not actually putting their money where their mouth is. If somebody truly believed the Nuggets were 99.9% to win the series, they’d think Denver should be 999:1 betting favorites or -99900 odds. That person would be rushing to bet the Nuggets at -2500 odds on DraftKings sportsbook because -2500 would be a “steal deal.”

That’s why markets work. Sports betting markets are based on where people are putting real money down.