Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Game 6 Betting Preview: Odds, Picks, Best Series Bets and Props

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OddsJam StaffApril 25, 2022, 02:30 PM

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Game 6 Betting Preview

TeamOdds
Mavericks Moneyline+105
Jazz Moneyline-116
Mavericks Spread+1.5
Jazz Spread-1.5
Mavericks/Jazz Total210
Game Date & TimeThu Apr 28th, 10 p.m. ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

The Jazz made it a series by winning game 4, only to promptly get waxed in game 5. Now, in a win or go home game for the Jazz, they are back at home for game 6. This is being played on Thursday, April 28th at 10 p.m. ET.

Despite the game 5 demolition, the Jazz are the favorite here. They are currently 1.5 point favorites, with the over/under at 210.

I’ll admit it, my jaw almost hit the ground when I saw the odds here. I was expecting the Mavericks to be huge favorites. Luka is clearly back and healthy, the Jazz look like they are ready to implode every second they step on the court, and now Donovan Mitchell is banged up.

Sticking with Mitchell for a second- reports are that he’s going to try to gut it out for game 6, but all the research I’ve done suggests that he won’t be close 100%, and would have most likely missed this game if it wasn’t quite possibly the Jazz’s last game of the season.

I gave the Jazz credit for weathering the storm and winning game 4 in Lukas return, but they lost almost all of that goodwill for their performance in game 5. They might as well have not even flown to Dallas and instead saved their legs.

They only scored 77 points in a 25 point loss. Funny enough, that 25 point final score wasn’t even as bad as the game actually was. When the starters were in the Jazz were outscored by even more than that, highlighted by Mitchell being a game worse -38 (!!!) in plus/minus. That minus 38 was in only 31 and a half minutes of play, by the way.

When the game is that much of a bludgeoning, it’s hard to look at the x’s and o’s to come up with solution for the Jazz other than “hey maybe just actually try next time.”

The problem with the Jazz, though, is that they have looked like they wanted their season to end even before the playoffs started. They caught a break with Luka injuring his calf and missing the first 3 games of the series, and couldn’t even take advantage of that.

Now, the Mavericks have a chance to close out the series in 6 games, even with Luka missing the first 3 games as mentioned earlier.

The formula for the Mavericks is pretty easy at this point too. I’ve said it all series long and even before the series started- it doesn’t take a basketball genius to understand how to attack this Jazz team. You put 5 shooters on the court with one pick-and-roll ball handler, and you force Rudy Gobert to cover the perimeter.

Predictably, the Jazz continue to easily allow inside penetration to the paint, and, still predictably, are unable to recover. They either allow an easy bucket at the rim, or a wide open 3-point shot. Either way, it is a high value shot for the Mavericks.

With Brunson carrying the load in games 1-3, and now with Luka back and looking great, I don’t see a way in which the Jazz win here. Even if Mitchell were fully healthy I would take the Mavericks moneyline, so with him banged up that makes this an even easier decision for me.

The Mavs opened up betting at around -145, but news that Mitchell was playing brought them down all the way to -110, which I happily took on Caesars. I doubt he will even be fully healthy, so I don’t think the line should have swung this much.

Mavericks moneyline is close to my favorite bet so far of the entire playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Game 6 Pick:

Mavericks moneyline | -110 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Prediction:

My prediction is that the Mavericks win 101-87.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Game 5 Betting Preview

TeamOdds
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline-150
Utah Jazz Moneyline+135
Dallas Mavericks Spread-3
Utah Jazz Spread+3
Mavericks/Jazz Game Total213
Game Date & TimeApr 25th, 9:30PM ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

The Jazz tied things up in game 4, bringing this series to 2-2 as we head back to Dallas for game 5. This game is being played on Monday, April 25th at 9:30PM ET.

With Luka back and looking great in game 4, and now at home, the Mavericks are unsurprisingly favored here. They are currently 3 point favorites with the over/under at 213.

I’ll give props to the Jazz- I expected them to lay down and die in game 4, and especially expected them to lay down and die once they gave up a huge lead in the 2nd half.

But, to their credit, they battled back and outscored the Mavericks 5-0 in the last minute of the game to win by 1. I thought it was curtains when Luka hit that dagger 3-pointer over Gobert to go up by 4 with less than a minute left. Alas, the Jazz came back and won thanks to Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert.

Another impressive part of the Jazz victory is they did so in a game in which Mitchell struggled. He shot 7 of 21, 2 of 10 from 3 and only had 23 points.

They won thanks to a 2nd half explosion from Jordan Clarkson. He had 26 in the game, and 13 in the 2nd half alone. When the game looked as though it was getting out of hands for the Jazz, Clarkson had 9 huge points in the 4th quarter.

I’m sure that the Mavericks are sick that they blew that last minute lead, but overall they have to be pleased with how good Luka looked in his return, and to have the series at 2-2 knowing that he’s good to go.

Luka played just under 34 minutes, and finished the game with 30 points and 10 rebounds. Assuming he continues to stay healthy, he should figure to get 40+ minutes from here on out.

Even with the Jazz winning game 4, I still love the Mavericks in game 5 and this series. They just have such an easy, replicable strategy to beat the Jazz that has been the same blueprint for years.

I love the Mavericks moneyline at -143 on BetRivers, and I also love sprinkling some on the Mavericks to win the series in 6 for those who are so inclined. This can be bet at +330 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Game 5 Pick:

My official NBA betting pick for this game is to take the Mavericks moneyline. I bet this at -143 on BetRivers Sportsbook.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Game 5 Prediction:

My prediction is that the Mavericks win this game 105-100.

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Betting Preview

TeamOdds
Utah Jazz Moneyline-192
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline+171
Utah Jazz Spread-4.5
Dallas Mavericks Spread+4.5
Jazz/Mavericks Game Total212.5
Game Date & TimeSat Apr 23rd, 4:30PM ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

The Utah Jazz are the saddest show on television. Despite Luka not playing a single second in this series so far, the Jazz are down 2-1 after losing game 3 at home. They stay in Utah in game 4, which is being played on Saturday April 23rd at 4:30PM ET.

Somehow, someway, for some reason, the Jazz are still favored in this game. The point spread is Jazz -4.5, with the over/under at 212.5.

There really is no other way to put this: the Jazz are a joke. They received the biggest break imaginable in this series with Luka injuring his calf on the literal last day of the season, but, because they are a joke, have not been able to take advantage.

Splitting the two games in Dallas was upsetting, but understandable. The way in which they lost is even more upsetting, and less understandable. Now, they went back home to Utah for game 3, and laid an egg of epic proportions.

Again, with no Luka Doncic, the Jazz let up 126 points to the Mavericks, and 68 points in the first half! They get the smallest of credit for not laying down and dying in the 2nd half, outscoring the Mavericks by 9 points to make the final score somewhat respectable, but that is about all the credit they deserve.

With all the talk and circus surrounding the team, to put up that type of effort in the 1st half in front of your home crowd is pretty tough to come back from. They were down 68-51 at halftime of game 3.

The Jazz imploding in the playoffs has become somewhat of a national pastime at this point, and I think its clear to all parties that a big change is needed. That big change most likely involves trading away center Rudy Gobert, assuming they will have some takers.

As far as actual basketball reasons why the Jazz have struggled, look no further than what I’ve been saying all series. The Jazz have weak perimeter defenders, and really their only hope on defense is Gobert taking away anything and everything at the rim.

So, to mitigate that, the opposing team just needs to put 5 shooters on the floor, spread out the defense, and make Gobert guard the perimeter. Without him in the paint, the Jazz predictably put up pretty no effort letting the Mavs drive into the paint where they can easily walk into a layup with no Gobert, or if he rotates they just kick it out to an open shooter.

It was the same formula the Clippers used last year, and it’s no different now against the Mavericks even with no Luka. Jalen Brunson has been awesome, and he deserves a ton of credit.

So, if it wasn’t clear by now, I’m taking the Mavericks moneyline here. The best odds I got it at was +170 on Caesars Sportsbook. I almost broke my thumb how hard I clicked the button to place this bet.

I’ve seen enough from the Jazz. Even though they are “only” down 2-1, they are ready for the season to end. I’ll admit I had this wrong before the series started- I thought that without Luka the Jazz caught a break and would win the series.

But, after watching game 1, even in a Jazz victory, I flipped on this. I’ve been riding the Mavericks the past two games, and will continue to do so.

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick:

My NBA betting pick for this game is to take the Mavericks Moneyline. I bet this at +170 on Caesars Sportsbook.

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Prediction:

My prediction is that the Mavericks win this game 112-106.

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Betting Preview

TeamOdds
Utah Jazz Moneyline-250
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline+219
Utah Jazz Spread-6.5
Dallas Mavericks Spread+6.5
Jazz/Mavericks Game Total210.5
Game, Date & TimeThu Apr 21st, 9PM ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

Thanks to a masterpiece performance from Jalen Brunson in game 2, the Mavericks were able to even the series at 1 game a piece. Now, we head west to Utah where the Jazz will host the Mavs. This game is being played on Thursday, April 21st at 9PM ET.

With the Jazz now being at home and the injury status of Luka Doncic still in question, the Jazz are pretty decent favorites here. The point spread is currently Jazz -6.5, with the total at 210.5.

The main headliner here, of course, is the electric show that Jalen Brunson put on in game 2. He was good in game 1, and then exploded in the next game- finishing with 41 points on 6 made 3-pointers, and 8 rebounds and 5 assists just to round it out.

He was awesome, and the Mavericks did exactly what they needed to do to take down this Jazz team. You force Rudy Gobert to guard on the perimeter by putting 5 shooters on the court, and you take advantage of their weak perimeter defense.

Without Gobert in the paint to deter shots at the rim, you can pick apart this Jazz defense. We’ve seen it time and time again, including their embarrassing flameout in the playoffs last year, losing two straight to a Kawhi-less Clippers team.

Now, the Jazz find themselves still with the home-court advantage in the series, but have to be disappointed in themselves losing a winnable game in which Luka missed.

Speaking of Luka, as of right now there is optimism that he could return “in game 3 or 4,” but nothing is confirmed as of right now. If I had to guess, the Mavs will end up resting Luka in game 3 and reevaluate again for game 4.

The Mavericks being able to steal a game at home with Luka missing bought them some time, and now they can afford to give him some more rest with the series at 1-1 as opposed to 0-2.

Looking at game 3, I kept going back and forth. On one hand, it’s pretty unlikely that Brunson goes off for over 40 points again. But, on the other hand, this Jazz team is just begging for someone to end their season. It is clear that this iteration of the Jazz team has reached their ceiling and that a change is needed.

What I ended up settling on was just taking the points with the Mavericks. I think the total is correctly priced at 210.5, so I don’t see any value there. Instead, I took the Mavericks +6.5 on BetRivers.

The spread opened at Dallas +8, but we’ve tracked sharp money on the Mavericks spread, moving the spread down to where it is now. I still think there is value on Mavericks +6.5, so I’m comfortable taking it there.

I think they have the formula down on how to beat this Jazz defense, and if the Jazz take another punch in the mouth from the Mavericks then they will just lay down and accept defeat.

We haven’t seen any back bone or fortitude from this Jazz team previously, and that isn’t something I foresee changing.

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick:

My official NBA betting pick for this game is to take the Mavericks to cover the spread. I got them at +6.5 on BetRivers Sportsbook at -110 odds.

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Prediction:

My prediction for this game is that the Mavericks will win 106-104.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Game 2 Betting Preview

Dallas Mavericks Moneyline+190
Utah Jazz Moneyline-219
Dallas Mavericks Spread+5.5
Utah Jazz Spread-5.5
Mavericks/Jazz Game Total205.5
Game Date & TimeMon Apr 18th, 8:30PM ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

With game 1 in the books, and the Jazz squeaking out a win after a valiant comeback attempt by the Mavericks, the Mavs hope to even the series in game 2.

With Luka unlikely to play, the Mavs are once again underdogs in this game. The Jazz are currently 5.5 point favorites, with the over/under at the low total of 205.5.

I was surprised to see the Mavericks as even bigger underdogs in game 2 as they were in game 1. I thought the Mavericks had a good showing, even with the loss and without Luka. They were down big, came back and made it a legitimately close game at the end.

Although Luka is most likely out again for game 2, I actually love the Mavs for the upset here. I still think that this Jazz team is ready for an implosion at any moment, and this is a tough Mavericks squad that is ripe for an upset.

I bet this at +200 on BetMGM.

For my player prop, I am taking Rudy Gobert to go under 15.5 rebounds. I bet this at -112 on FanDuel.

I know Rudy hit this in game 1, but 16+ rebounds is a lot of rebounds, obviously. Game 1 featured a lot of missed shots, and, not surprisingly, game 2 has a low total.

I think that the pendulum has swung too far with the total as low as 205.5, though. So, as a result of more points scored, there won’t be as many rebound opportunities for Rudy to get over 15.5 rebounds.

He had missed this in 3 straight games prior to game 1, and I expect this to go under again. I would bet this all the way down to -120 as my limit.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Game 2 Picks:

My official NBA betting picks for this game is to take the Mavericks moneyline. I bet this at +200 odds on BetMGM Sportsbook.

For my player prop I like Rudy Gobert to go under 15.5 rebounds. I bet this at -112 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Game 2 Prediction:

My prediction is that the Mavericks will win 107-103.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Game 1 Betting Preview

TeamOdds
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline+174
Utah Jazz Moneyline-196
Dallas Mavericks Spread+5
Utah Jazz Spread-5
Mavericks/Jazz Game Total210
Game Date & TimeSat Apr 16th, 1PM ET
Odds via OddsJam Perfect Line

You will see the full series preview and analysis below, so I’ll keep the game preview itself relatively short. I’ll provide my official prediction, and one player prop as well.

The main news to come out of this game is that Luka Doncic is confirmed out for at least game 1. Unsurprisingly, the odds have shifted pretty dramatically in favor of the Jazz.

As of right now, the OddsJam Line prices them as 5 point favorites, with the over/under set at 210. The interesting part about that total is it opened at 219 and has been bet all the way down to 210.

I was able to get in on this under at 216 on BetRivers, but I still like it even at the total it’s at now.

The Mavericks defense has been surprisingly stout this entire year, and without Luka I would imagine they are going to have trouble scoring as well.

With that said, one player prop that I like is Jalen Brunson to make over 1.5 3-pointers. With Luka out, he will see both his playing time and responsibility increase. He has hit this in 6 of the last 10 games Luka missed.

I bet this at +105 on Caesars Sportsbook, and I would bet it down to +100.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Game 1 Picks:

My official NBA betting pick for this game is to take the under. I bet this at under 216 at -115 odds on BetRivers Sportsbook, but would recommend taking the under 210 where the total is currently set.

My favorite player prop for this game is to take Jalen Brunson to go over 1.5 made 3-pointers. I bet this on Caesars Sportsbook at +105 odds.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Game 1 Predictions:

My prediction is that the Jazz will win this game 99-92.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Series Odds & Analysis

TeamOdds
Dallas Mavericks Series Odds+250
Utah Jazz Series Odds-320
Dallas Mavericks Game Spread+2.5
Utah Jazz Game Spread-2.5
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

In this article, we will be previewing the playoff matchup between the 4 seed Dallas Mavericks and the 5 seed Utah Jazz. As the higher seed, the Mavericks will have home-court advantage in this series.

This is another series, similar to Warriors vs Nuggets, in which an injury plays a huge, massive, impossible to overrate impact on the outcome of the series.

In the last game of the regular season, Luka Doncic strained his calf muscle. The Mavericks have confirmed that he suffered a calf strain, but they have not confirmed what his return timetable looks like. Luka is incredible, so this is a really big deal if he can’t go the entire series.

Based on recent reports it’s looking as though he won’t be able to play at all, so that is how I will be proceeding moving forward.

No. 4 Mavericks vs No. 5 Jazz Betting Preview

  • Head-to-Head Regular Season Record: 2-2
  • Dallas Mavericks Regular Season Record: 52-30
  • Utah Jazz Regular Season Record: 49-33

Utah Jazz Analysis: Is it Better to be Lucky or Good?

It really is devastating that it’s looking like Luka won’t be able to play in this series. If he was fully healthy, I would have taken the Mavericks to win in 5 or 6 games. This Jazz team is just begging to give up on the season and start their vacations.

Instead, they luck out and get a Mavericks team missing their best player. It is funny though, with all the circus surrounding the Jazz ready to implode and with all their blown leads in the past month, they still test well in the NBAs advanced analytics.

On the season as a whole they have the 3rd best Net Rating in the entire NBA. They have the best offensive Net Rating, and the 10th best defensive Net Rating.

Even if you isolate from March on, or even the last month, they are still in the top 10 in Net Rating. So, despite all the noise, this is still a very good basketball team.

Of course, the issue with the Jazz was never the regular season. They were the top seed in all of the NBA last year, only to flame out and lose 4 straight to the Clippers in the Western Conference Semifinals, 2 of those games the Clippers were without Kawhi Leonard.

The book on how to target the Jazz defense is pretty well-known at this point: you play 5-out on offense and make Gobert guard the perimeter. This means that you put 5 shooters on the floor so Gobert can’t just sit in the paint, where he is elite. Instead, you put him in a pick-and-roll and force him away from the basket.

Gobert is the best rim protector the NBA has seen in a long time, but what teams have been able to do in the playoffs is stretch him out to the perimeter. This is what the Clippers did so well in the playoffs last year.

The real issue with the Jazz defense isn’t that Gobert can’t guard the perimeter, it is instead that the Jazz have weak perimeter defense and easily allow penetration to the paint. Because Gobert is an elite paint defender, he himself is able to keep the Jazz defense a top 10 unit despite the teams inefficiencies.

So, with Gobert away from the basket, the Jazz continue to allow inside penetration but don’t have him in the paint to protect them.

Dallas Mavericks Analysis: How Quickly do Calf Injuries Heal?

The Mavericks, with Luka as their main ball handler, would have been able to do a great job being able to employ this offensive tactic. He is quite possibly the best offensive pick-and-roll ball handler in all of basketball. Not many players can generate as many good looks for teammates as well as being able to score on their own.

Jalen Brunson is a good secondary ball-handler and stabilizing force for the second unit, but he would be miscast as the main source of offense for the Mavericks. Outside of Brunson they have solid role players in Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, and Dwight Powell.

They also seemed to have found something in Spencer Dinwiddie as well, who came over when they traded away Kristaps Porziņģis.

Again, the unfortunate reality of this series is that none of this analysis really matters if Luka is out the entire series.

So, for that reason, I am begrudgingly riding with the Jazz in this one. I was ready to fade the daylights out of them, but then Luka got hurt and everything changed. I could see the Mavericks maybe stealing two games, but nothing more than that.

In the series preview video above I was lucky enough to get the Jazz game spread -1.5 at -110 odds on BetMGM, so that is what I’ll go with for my pick.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Picks:

My official NBA betting pick for this series is to take the Jazz game spread -1.5 at -110 odds on BetMGM Sportsbook.

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Prediction:

My prediction is that the Jazz win this series in 6 games.

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