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The best bets and resources to make you more profitable
|Bucks Win Percentage||32.26%|
|Celtics Win Percentage||67.74%|
|Game Date & Time||May 15, 3:30 p.m. ET|
This series has been everything any NBA fan could have asked for and more. It has been an extremely competitive, exciting, and back and forth series with the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics each winning and covering three games a piece — resulting in what should be an epic Game 7 this afternoon.
The fact that this series has even gone this long without Khris Middleton for the Bucks is a testament to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absolute brilliance.
If there was any debate who the best player in the world was coming into the playoffs — the Greek Freak has put that to rest with a playoff performance for the history books this series — averaging 40 points, 15.3 rebounds and five assists per game over the last four games.
He has practically single handedly carried the Bucks in this series and he will be the best player on the floor in this “anything can happen” Game 7.
Jayson Tatum is right behind him though and he has been brilliant in his own right. In another preview I wrote that Tatum is a legitimate superstar who was poised to take that next step into the stratosphere this postseason and he did just that in Game 6. He had a playoff high 46 points while putting the Celtics on his back in the fourth quarter once again, hitting clutch shot after clutch shot, holding off Giannis’s late charge in what resembled a heavyweight bout.
Giannis has been consistently excellent this series and you know he will bring it again in this pivotal Game 7. Tatum has been largely inconsistent this series, alternating mediocre games with excellent games, and he is going to have to be excellent once again this afternoon Celtics expect to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals this afternoon.
Statistically the Celtics have dominated the stats this series — owning the superior numbers in field-goal percentage, three point shots made, three point percentage, free throw points, blocked shots and assists.
In the three games the Bucks won this series, their only true edge was in second chance points, an area the Celtics cleaned up in Game 6 and won as well, which resulted in a 13 point win to tie the series up.
If you adhered to the “zig-zag” strategy this series, a betting strategy where you wager on the team who lost outright in the game before to cover the spread in the game directly after, then you are 6-0 against the spread — neither the Bucks nor the Celtics have been able to string together consecutive wins (or covers) through the first six games of the series.
Through six game previews so far, I have said just about all I have to say about the Celtics and Bucks matchup advantages and how I ultimately see this series playing out. From the beginning I said I thought the Celtics were the better team and they would ultimately win this series in seven games, and my opinion remains the same.
If you are an advocate of the “zig-zag” strategy which has been so profitable this series, I cannot fault you, however since I like the Celtics to win this game outright, I cannot pick the Bucks to cover.
In the NBA playoffs this season, the team who won the game has covered the spread 94% of the time, meaning the favorite either wins and wins by margin, or the underdog wins outright. It is a -EV strategy to bet on an underdog hoping that they lose the game but come close enough to cover, because that has only occurred four times the entire playoffs and zero times in the second round!
The Bucks have embodied this trend as well as I have touched on in previous previews — in the 34 games the Bucks have lost this season, they are 0-34 ATS, not a single “close but no cigar” loss where they lose the game but cover the spread. When they lose, they lose by margin.
Since I like the Celtics to win, they are my pick to cover the modest spread as well. In the games they won this series, they dominated, winning by 8 points or more — all good enough to cover the -5 spread this afternoon.
I will be riding out the “Celtics To Win The Series 4-3 +230” wager I gave out in the Game 4 preview and I will be doubling down on the Celtics to win this game by margin like they have done in all of their wins all series.
Pick: Celtics -5 | -110 at DraftKings
Bonus Pick: Under 205.5 | -110 at DraftKings
Milwaukee has championship experience and pedigree, and it will take another complete performance from Tatum and the Celtics to knock them off.
The Bucks won’t go down without a fight, but home court will ultimately prove to be the difference as the Celtic’s pull away late behind a raucous home crowd in TD Garden and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in a low scoring affair.
Celtics 101, Bucks 95