Breaking History? The Probability the Celtics or Lakers Come Back from Down 3-0

What’s the chance we make history & have a team come back from down 3-0?

It’s 17.26%.

The full explanation & mathematical reasoning is explained in this article…

Series Odds: Lakers vs Nuggets & Heat vs Celtics

We’ll start by looking at the series odds on DraftKings sportsbook.

• Eastern Conference Finals: Heat -1400 / Celtics +800
• Western Conference Finals: Nuggets -2500 / Lakers +1200

As seen in the screenshot below, according to the odds on DraftKings sportsbook, the Miami Heat have a series win probability 89.36% using a no vig odds calculator.

This calculator just converts sportsbook odds into win probabilities. Every odd has an associated probability, just like every fraction has an associated probability (e.g. 3/4 = 75%). A -300 odds favorite means a 3:1 betting favorite (e.g. 3/4 to win, or 75%).

Using the same concepts, the Denver Nuggets have a series win probability of 92.59%.

Thus, the probability both the Heat & Nuggets win their respective series = 82.74%. You just multiply the Nuggets win probability by the Heat win probability (89.36% x 92.59% = 82.74%).

Continuing on, the probability history is broken and at least one team comes back from down 3-0 is 17.26% (100% – 82.74% = 17.26%).

This is simply the probability that either the Lakers or Celtics (or both) win their respective series. 17.26% is not trivial – there’s a solid chance that history is broken in 2023…

The reason you trust sportsbook odds is because this is where real money is being put down. Sports bettors are wagering at these odds. That’s why markets work. Sports betting markets are based on where people are putting real money down.

To go even further, the probability both of Lakers vs Celtics in the NBA Finals is just 0.8% (10.64% x 7.41% = 0.8%).