Boston has Hope: What’s the Probability the Celtics Complete the Comeback?

No team has come back from a 3-0 deficit in NBA history…

However, after Game 4 in Miami, the Boston Celtics are one game closer to making history.

In Game 4, the Miami Heat were up to -300 moneyline odds at a point; they were leading by six points at the half. However, Boston dominated the second half, ultimately winning Game 4 by 17 points. There’s a glimmer of hope for the Celtics…

Sportsbooks have already posted moneyline odds for Game 5 of Heat vs Celtics. As seen in the screenshot above from the OddsJam NBA Odds Page, betting markets are giving Miami no respect. The Boston Celtics are roughly -300 moneyline odds on most online bookmakers. In other words, betting markets are pricing a 75% win probability for Boston in Game 5 (-300 odds = a 3:1 betting favorite = 3/4 to win = 75% to win).

In this NBA betting article, I’ll be breaking down the true probability that the Celtics win the Eastern Conference Finals. If you have any questions, my email is [email protected] – I’m always happy to answer questions about sports analytics & sports betting.

Celtics vs Heat Series Odds: What are Sportsbooks Saying?

On Caesars sportsbook, the Miami Heat are priced at -275 odds to win the Eastern Conference Finals. The Boston Celtics are offered on Caesars at +220 odds.

It shouldn’t be surprising that the Heat are heavy favorites to win the series; they’re up 3-1. However, Miami was -1400 odds to win the Eastern Conference Finals entering Game 4… Unsurprisingly, there’s been a huge change in the odds after the Celtics won Game 4.

Next, we want to use a No Vig Sports Betting Calculator to determine the series win probability for each team. Simply input the odds from Caesars sportsbook and this calculator will tell you the exact win probability for both teams.

According to the betting markets on Caesars, the Heat are 70.12% to advance to the Finals. The Celtics are 29.88%.

A No Vig Calculator simply converts odds to probabilities; it’s the most important calculator in sports betting.

Every odd has an associated probability, just like every fraction has an associated probability (e.g. 3/4 = 75%). As an example, if the Heat were -200 to win the series, then they’d be 2:1 betting favorites (e.g. 2/3 to win, or 66.67%): a -200 odds favorite just means 2/3 or 66.67% to win. A -300 odds favorite means a 3:1 betting favorite (e.g. 3/4 to win, or 75%).

The reason you trust sportsbook odds is because this is where real money is being put down. Sports bettors are placing real dollars on the Celtics at +220 odds and the Heat at -275.

Anybody can say “Oh, the Heat are 99.9% to win the series, history won’t be broken,” but that opinion is useless because they’re not actually putting their money where their mouth is. If somebody truly believed the Heat were 99.9% to win the series, they’d think Miami should be 999:1 betting favorites or -99900 odds. That person would be rushing to bet the Heat at -275 odds on Caesars sportsbook because -275 would be a “steal deal.”

That’s why markets work. Sports betting markets are based on where people are putting real money down.