Locking in this Sharp Miami Heat Player Prop for Game 5 on May 25, 2023

The Boston Celtics have extended the Eastern Conference Finals, both avoiding a sweep and making this very interesting if they can take care of business in Game 5. Luckily for us sharp sports bettors, another game in this series means another opportunity to lock in some plays with the Positive EV tool.

Heat vs. Celtics Pick: Gabe Vincent Under 12.5 Points

I already locked in this sharp play on Fliff, where we’ve got some clear value on Vincent to go under his total in this one. Take a look at this.

Clearly, the sportsbook predict Vincent to go under 12.5 in Game 5 because of his over being plus-money. FanDuel is quite confident in him not scoring more than 13, given their -154 odds. While they’re not the highest odds, Caesars and DraftKings both project the under as more likely as well.

At Fliff, however, we’ve got this play for -115, which is substantially lower than all of the other sportsbooks and is below the average odds by a solid margin. Taking this play at FanDuel or Caesars is a surefire way to lose money in the long term. We’re getting clear value here at Fliff, so be sure to lock this in before odds move.

Now take a look at this chart. This line opened up around pick’em odds at -113, but has since tanked down to -154 at FanDuel. What does this tell us? Well, the sportsbooks are substantially moving this line in favor of his under, yet Fliff is still offering us the odds they opened at.

The sportsbooks think Vincent is going under and we’re getting amazing value with this Positive EV play. It also helps that role players like Vincent tend to play worse on the road. In Game 2, which was the last game in Boston, Vincent posted just nine points.

Regardless of in-game explanation, however, consistently betting Positive EV bets are how I make money long term. As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. That’s what we’re doing in this one with Vincent’s under.