Last Minute NBA Picks for Game 2 of the Conference Finals

Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets is tonight and I have six profitable bets on ParlayPlay…plus another great bet on Fliff.

In these articles, I’m simply showing you where I’m finding value (e.g. an “edge”) – what I’m putting my own money on… If I find value on FanDuel sportsbook, then I’ll have more articles about FanDuel. If there’s more profitable picks on Underdog Fantasy, then I’ll have more articles on Underdog.

It’s really that simple… I bet to make money. In these betting previews, I’m just showing you what I bet & explaining why each pick is mathematically profitable.

Pick #1: Lebron James Under 33.5 Points + Assists

I found this play on the OddsJam Odds Screen. As you can see below, the other sportsbooks have this play listed 1-2 full points + assists lower than ParlayPlay. This shows that there is value on the under at ParlayPlay.

ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform. To be profitable on this fantasy sports platform, we need to win above 53.22% of our player prop over/unders.

ParlayPlay knows that most sports bettors have zero “edge” (or advantage) – they’ll will win 50%, lose 50% of their over/unders. Thus, recreational bettors with no edge will lose money on ParlayPlay long-term, as they can’t win their player props above 53.22% of the time.

Having a consistent point or two of edge makes all the difference in the long run when trying to beat that 53.22%.

Pick #2: Marcus Smart Under 3.5 Rebounds

I found this NBA prop on the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer. In the screenshot below, you can see that the other sportsbooks significantly favor Smart’s under. With ParlayPlay having the same payout regardless of which side of the prop you take, there’s clear value on the under.

Each sportsbook is a data point telling you that the under is the more likely outcome. The Fantasy Optimizer simply quantifies the exact win probability for this NBA bet using sportsbook odds.

As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. That’s the key to identifying value and profitable bets.

The Full Slip:

Pick #3: D’Angelo Russell Under 4.5 Assists | -130 at Fliff

This bet was found using the OddsJam Positive EV Tool (bet in bold/green = profitable). The Positive EV Tool is pretty simple to use – you just hit the betting picks in green & bold. So in the screenshot below, the under at -130 on Fliff is bolded and highlighted in green, suggesting you bet his under at that specific sportsbook.

The Positive EV Tool is just based in data – sportsbook odds… Long story short, OddsJam takes the “fluff” out of sports betting on Fliff and every other sportsbook and DFS site.

Look at all the other books. Nowhere else is even close to -130.

Another great thing about Fliff is that it’s a social sportsbook, so it’s available to users in many states where the classic sportsbooks aren’t yet allowed.

Sure, this bet may not win. Not all bets do. But if I can find value like this on every bet, I will be profitable in the long run. I don’t try to handicap my picks. Nobody is better at that than the oddsmakers, so I just follow the data to find outliers in the market like this.