$6,000 Payout, Sharp & Early NBA Picks: 5 Player Prop Bets for Friday, May 12

Heat vs Knicks, Lakers vs Warriors… Elimination games. What’s better than that?!

In this betting preview, I’m going to run through five sharp player prop bets for Friday, May 12. I have three prop bets for Lakers vs Warriors, as well as two picks for Knicks vs Heat.

Pick #1: D’Angelo Russell Under 5.5 Assists on No House Advantage

My first NBA prop for Friday is in Lakers vs Warriors Game 6. I’m on D’Angelo Russell under 5.5 assists on No House Advantage (NHA). I found this sharp NBA bet on the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer (picks in green = profitable).

This betting tool is pretty simple to use – you just select the picks in green.

Why?

Well… All of these picks in green have win rates above 53.22%. No House Advantage is a fixed payout platform. Basically, to be profitable on this DFS platform long-term, you need to win at least 53.22% of your player prop over/unders.

Most sports bettors have zero advantage or “edge.” Thus, they can only win their player prop over/unders 50% of the time. They win 50% and lose 50% of their picks. That’s how No House Advantage makes money… They know most bettors cannot win above 53.22% of their picks, so those bettors will be unprofitable on the platform long-term.

But just take a look at D’Angelo Russell Under 5.5 Assists. As seen on the Fantasy Optimizer, Russell under 5.5 Assists has a win rate of 54.03%. That’s over 53.22%, so this prop bet is profitable in an NHA entry.

Russell’s u5.5 Assists has a win rate above 53.22% because his under is heavily favored on all sportsbooks. Every betting tool on OddsJam is just based in raw data – sportsbook odds. There’s no fluff, no B.S.

As seen in the screenshot above from OddsJam Positive EV, all sportsbooks have Russell’s under 5.5 assists as the heavily favored outcome (around -140 odds). Thus, according to every data point (e.g. sportsbook posting odds), Russell is a lot more likely to go under 5.5 assists as opposed to over.

We know Russell’s under is the more likely outcome – every sportsbook is telling us that. This is exactly what we’re looking for when betting on fixed payout platforms like No House Advantage.

I locked in 5 NBA props for $500. I’m staking $500 to win $6,000 if all picks hit. Again, in these strategy articles, I’m just showing you what I’m putting my own money on – where I’m finding value.

My five picks are:

1. Mitchell Robinson Over 8.5 Rebounds in Heat vs Knicks Game 6
2. Kyle Lowry Under 4.5 Assists in Heat vs Knicks Game 6
3. Anthony Davis Over 13.5 Rebounds in Lakers vs Warriors Game 6
4. D’Angelo Russell Under 5.5 Assists in Lakers vs Warriors Game 6
5. Austin Reaves Over 1.5 Made Threes in Lakers vs Warriors Game 6