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$6,000 on Jimmy Butler: 5 “No Brainer” Player Prop Bets for the Eastern Conference Finals
AP Photos
It got scary for the Celtics, but they managed to pull it off…
In this betting preview, I’ll be discussing a 5 pick parlay for the Eastern Conference Finals. Game 1 of Heat vs Celtics is set to tip off at 8:30pm EST on Wednesday, May 17.
I have a $6,000 payout on the line if I win all 5 of my NBA prop bets.
Pick #1: Bam Adebayo Under 31.5 Pts + Reb + Ast on No House Advantage
My first NBA prop for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals is Bam Adebayo Under 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists. I found this sharp NBA pick on the OddsJam NBA Screen.
As seen in the screenshot above, No House Advantage is the only platform with Adebayo’s line set at 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists. Underdog Fantasy and every sportsbook have Bam’s line set two full points lower at 29.5.
Follow the data. No House Advantage is two points higher than the rest of the market, so we want to take the under. There’s dozens of data points (e.g. sportsbooks posting odds) that are telling us Bam’s line should be set at 29.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts. No House Advantage is slipping up big time…
No House Advantage, or NHA, is a new sportsbook that I signed up for. There’s a lot of value (e.g. profitable bets) on this platform…
No House Advantage works a bit differently than a traditional sportsbook. On No House Advantage, the payouts are fixed.
By fixed payouts, I mean that NHA does NOT vary payouts based on the 5 picks you select. Any 5 pick entry with insurance will have the following payout structure:
- 5/5 Picks correct = 12x Payout
- 4/5 Picks correct = 2.6 Payout
Since No House Advantage is a fixed payout platform that does not vary payouts based on you selecting overs (or unders), there’s a pretty simple strategy for beating them: find spots where sportsbooks have one side, either the over or under, heavily favored.
As an example of a profitable player prop on NHA, check out the screenshot below. For Fernando Tatis over/under 1.5 Bases, it’s clear that all major sportsbooks have him a lot more likely to go under as opposed to over. That’s why bookmakers have his under heavily juiced.
Plays like Tatis under 1.5 Bases are exactly what we’re looking for on No House Advantage. As explained in this tutorial video, you simply need to win above 53.22% of your player prop picks to be profitable on No House Advantage long-term.
If you win 55% of your player props on NHA, then you’ll make a lot of money on this platform long-term. If you’re only able to win 51% of your prop bets, then you’ll lose a lot of money long-term. It’s that simple. So find spots where sportsbooks have an over (or under) heavily favored, and you’ll make serious profits on No House Advantage.
My No House Advantage entry is above. The 5 player prop bets in my slip are:
- Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 Points
- Marcus Smart Under 14.5 Points
- Jimmy Butler Over 6.5 Rebounds
- Malcolm Brogdon Over 3.5 Rebounds
- Bam Adebayo Under 31.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
As seen in the screenshot, I’m staking $500 to win $6,000 if all 5 NBA player prop picks win. If I go 4/5 in this slip, I’ll still get a 2.6x payout (e.g. $1,300 payout).
The tutorial video above explains how to make money on No House Advantage. I break down profitable sports betting strategy on this new sportsbook. Of course, if you have any questions about sharp, profitable sports betting, then you can reach out to me at [email protected] – I’m always happy to help!
