New York Yankees (65-31) @ Baltimore Orioles (47-47) Prop Picks
1:35 p.m. ET
Nestor Cortes will be making his first appearance since appearing in his first all star game. Motivation should be high, and he gets a great matchup vs a division rival to begin his second half of the season.
Nestor broke into the league with the Orioles back in 2018 before joining the Yankees in 2019 to be a part of their bullpen. He got hit around quite a bit with a 5.67 ERA in 66.2 innings and spent the following season with Seattle. He then found his way back to the Yankees for 2021, and the rest is history.
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Nestor began to put everything together last season, and ended up starting 14 games with great success. Now in his first full season as a starter, he has made sure the Yanks did not regret their decision. He is 7-3 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
Nasty Nestor has been a bit challenging to catch on the right day lately. He has hit the over in 4 of his last 10, but there is too much to like about this spot to let the trends scare me away.
Nestor is averaging just over 1 K per inning this season at 1.04, but something about his stuff changes during the day. He has a 1.85 day game ERA, and he is averaging 1.35 K per inning. He has 59 K in 43.2 innings during the day.
He also has a terrific history vs the Orioles. His season high in K is 12, which he recorded at Camden yards in his second start of the season vs these O’s. In 53 combined at bats, O’s batters have struck out 24 times. That is a 45.3% K rate. They only have 9 hits in those 53 at bats, and 5 walks so he has done a great job keeping the bases clear vs them.
Perhaps not an elite strikeout guy, Nestor has managed some impressive percentiles, He is in the 71st percentile in K rate and the 65th percentile in K rate.
The O’s have been a solid matchup much of this season for pitchers. They average the 6th most K per game at 8.84. They have the league’s 3rd worst K rate vs lefties this season at 25.2%, and have a 24.3% K rate during day games.
I love this spot for Nestor to pick up 6+ K.
Yankees vs. Orioles Prop Pick: Nestor Cortes over 5.5 strikeouts | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
