MLB Best Bet – August 11, 2022
Chicago White Sox (56-55) vs. Kansas City Royals (46-66)
2:10 p.m. ET
I have been avoiding the chalky K props as often as possible for a few weeks now, but this is one I have to lock in. No one in the world is pitching as well as Dylan Cease has over the past 2 months, and I really like him to continue his dominance in this matchup.
Remember back on 5/24 when Dylan Cease had a 4.24 ERA after getting hit around by the Red Sox?? Well times have changed a bit I’d say. Since that game, Cease has rattled off 13 straight starts with 1 earned run or less.
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He had a 0.33 ERA in June and a 0.76 ERA in July. Now 2nd in ERA, 6th in wins, and 3rd in K, Cease will try to chase his first Cy Young of his career the rest of the yeast.
I could talk all day about Dylan Cease strikeouts. I mentioned that he is 3rd in the league with 166 K. He averages 1.36 K per inning which is in the 93rd percentile in the league. He generates swinging strikes at 16.1%, which is in the 96th percentile. His called strike plus whiff rate (CSW) is 31.6% which sits in the 86th percentile. His 32.8% K rate is in the 95th percentile, whiff rate is in 96th percentile, and his chase rate is in the 81st percentile. He is elite across the board at missing bats.
His slider (his most thrown pitch) has a 46.8% whiff rate and a .121 opponent average. He has a ~97 MPH fastball that generates whiffs at a 25.5 clip, and then occasionally mixes in curves and changeups that both have 31%+ whiff rates. Simply put, he can use whatever pitch he wants to retire a batter on strikes.
The Royals have been a tough matchup for several years. They have been a great contact team, and then the trade deadline came. At the deadline, they ditched their 1-2 hitters Whit Merrifield and Andrew Benintendi. Both guys were terrific contact players that the Royals will struggle to replace for a long time.
Now the Royals throw out 5-6 terrific K targets a day, and their K rate has exploded. They have a 24.0% K rate over the last 30 days, and it has jumped to 25.9% over the last 15 days. They have the 10th highest K rate vs RHP over the last 30 days. Cease managed 9 K in both matchups vs KC prior to the deadline, so I like his chances to get 8 vs a much easier lineup to K.
White Sox vs. Royals Prop Pick: Dylan Cease over 7.5 strikeouts | +106 at Fanduel
