Sharp MLB Picks for Tuesday: 3 Best MLB Bets for September 29, Including Marlins vs. Brewers

Marlins vs. Brewers Pick: 2U Eric Lauer Over 5.5 Ks | -101 at FanDuel

7:40 p.m. ET

Eric Lauer loves to strike out people and he has been on fire in his last starts. Now, he goes against a Milwaukee team that is 26th in the league in strike out percentage and averaging 11 Ks per game in their last three. The floor for Lauer should be 6 Ks.

Phillies vs. Cubs Pick: 1U Phillies -1.5 | -115 at PointsBet

9:45 p.m. ET

I do not see the Cubs performing particularly well in this one. The Phillies are the better team, it’s the end of September, and vacations are being planned. I’m also taking the Phillies -2.5 in this one, but the safest bet is Phillies -1.5.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Pick: 1U Orioles Moneyline | Shop for the Best Odds Below!

1:35 p.m. ET

I’m going to go against the grain on this one. The Red Sox are the worse team here and Baltimore has been, surprisingly, a good team this year. I expect them to close out the year strong to cap off an exciting season for the Orioles organization.

I locked this in for +138 at BetRivers, but be sure to shop for the best lines using the table below before placing your bet!

How do I Calculate my Unit Size?

For the most basic bettors, it’s advisable to make your units about 1% of your bankroll, and certainly not more than 2%. So a bettor with a $5,000 bankroll should have units of about $50. That doesn’t mean every bet has to be $50, but it’s the starting point to base your bet sizes on.

There are many strategies for managing your bankroll, but if you are simply betting for some entertainment or have the tiniest of edges, you may place half a unit on a bet, or $25. A base bet would be $50, and then for plays you love and see a bigger edge in you might go to 2% or 3% of your bankroll, which would be two or three units.

A good way to calculate how many units to put on a bet is to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a system that bases the amount of your bankroll to put on each bet based on the odds given, and the fair win probability of the bet. You can use OddsJam’s Kelly Criterion Calculator to find your ideal bet size using this method.

Using this calculator, say there’s a bet with a 55% chance of winning and you’re able to get -110 odds. With the Kelly Multiplier set at one, it tells you to risk 5.5% of your bankroll on that one bet. Most bettors aren’t comfortable risking that much of their bankroll at a time, so feel free to set the Kelly multiplier at a fraction of one that you are more comfortable with.

When using the Kelly Criterion calculator, whatever you decide on just remember to always keep the Kelly multiplier consistent across all your bets.