Sharp MLB Picks for Sunday: 3 Best MLB Bets for September 25, Including Rays vs. Blue Jays

Rays vs. Blue Jays Pick: 1U Shane McClanahan Over 5.5 Ks | -145 at DraftKings

1:10 p.m. ET

Shane McClanahan is nothing if not a bounce-back pitcher. In his last outing against the Astros, his performance was not what we typically see from him. I expect him to be looking to make a statement this game and, unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they drew the short straw.

Royals vs. Mariners Pick: 1U Luis Castillo Over 5.5 Ks | -145 at DraftKings

4:10 p.m. ET

Luis Castillo is a K machine and this game against the Royals bodes well for the starting pitcher. He is throwing 6+ Ks at a 70% clip in the past 10 games and I look for him to continue that trend against a lesser Royals lineup.

Brewers vs. Reds Pick: 1U Brewers Moneyline | -148 at FanDuel

1:10 p.m. ET

The Milwaukee Brewers are, obviously, the better team here. The Reds are on a 3 game-losing streak and, while they are playing at home, I don’t expect it to be a big enough boost to carry them to a W tonight. The Brewers are playing for a wild card spot, the Reds are already planning their October vacations. Enough said.

How do I Calculate my Unit Size?

For the most basic bettors, it’s advisable to make your units about 1% of your bankroll, and certainly not more than 2%. So a bettor with a $5,000 bankroll should have units of about $50. That doesn’t mean every bet has to be $50, but it’s the starting point to base your bet sizes on.

There are many strategies for managing your bankroll, but if you are simply betting for some entertainment or have the tiniest of edges, you may place half a unit on a bet, or $25. A base bet would be $50, and then for plays you love and see a bigger edge in you might go to 2% or 3% of your bankroll, which would be two or three units.

A good way to calculate how many units to put on a bet is to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a system that bases the amount of your bankroll to put on each bet based on the odds given, and the fair win probability of the bet. You can use OddsJam’s Kelly Criterion Calculator to find your ideal bet size using this method.

Using this calculator, say there’s a bet with a 55% chance of winning and you’re able to get -110 odds. With the Kelly Multiplier set at one, it tells you to risk 5.5% of your bankroll on that one bet. Most bettors aren’t comfortable risking that much of their bankroll at a time, so feel free to set the Kelly multiplier at a fraction of one that you are more comfortable with.

When using the Kelly Criterion calculator, whatever you decide on just remember to always keep the Kelly multiplier consistent across all your bets.