I am not shy about writing a Shane article at 7.5 K. I have done it a few times now, and will do it several more times this season. There are not many guys I trust with a line this high, but he is certainly one of them.
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When you look back at prospect rankings in 2020, you will have to scroll for a long time to find Shane. On MLB.com, he was the 99th ranked prospect. He was ranked behind guys like Dane Dunning, Daniel Lynch, and Hunter Greene.
My intent is not to criticize scouts by any means, moreso point out how incredible Shane’s ascent has been. He went from a borderline MLB starter to the Cy Young favorite in 2 years.
Shane actually made his MLB debut in the postseason of 2020. He then came up early last season and delivered incredible results. He was 10-6 with a 3.43 ERA and had 141 K in 123.1 innings. Those numbers have been blown out of the water with the early stats from this season.
Shane is 10-3 with a league best 1.71 ERA and a league best 0.80 WHIP. He averaged a very respectable 3.8 K/BB last season, and then doubled it this season at 7.7 K/BB.
He has been one of the most elite K guys this season. He has racked up 147 K in 110.2 innings. He is over 7.5 K in 11/18 starts this season. His percentiles are about as good as you will find in the league. He is in the 92nd percentile in K per inning, 98th percentile in swinging strike rate, 98th percentile in K rate, 96th percentile in whiff rate, and 88th percentile in chase rate.
Baltimore is a great target for K props. They average the 7th most K per game at 8.78. They have the 3rd highest K rate vs lefties this season at 25.2%. Overall, they swing and miss at the league’s 6th highest rate, and that should only go up tonight. Shane has faced them one time this season.
While he only had 7 K, I am encouraged because that was his first start of the season and he only threw 68 pitches. I expect yet another masterclass performance from Shane tonight, and like him to get 8+ K.
Rays vs. Orioles Prop Pick: Shane McClanahan over 7.5 strikeouts | -122 at FanDuel
