MLB Best Bet – August 10, 2022
Tampa Bay Rays (58-51) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (59-50)
2:10 p.m. ET
Jeffery Springs is yet another pitcher that has made the transition from bullpen to starter. He has appeared in 22 games this season, and started 14. His first 5 appearances of the season were 1 inning or less of work, so naturally it took him a while to build up to a full workload. He has now thrown 87.6 pitches a game over his last 10 and has become a viable option for K props. I love this spot for him this afternoon.
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Springs has been a very effective pitcher this season. He has a 2.50 ERA for the season and 2.22 ERA during the day. He has been very good against right handed bats, holding them to a .226 average. Milwaukee will stack righties against him, perhaps as many as 8 so his ability to get righties out will play a massive factor.
The 29 year old Springs has a solid history of K in his career. He has 237 K in 208.2 career innings, and has been able to maintain 1+ K per inning as he’s transitioned to a starter. He is in the 58th percentile in K per inning, 78th percentile in swinging strike percentage, 73rd percentile in K rate, 71st percentile in whiff rate, and an elite 96th percentile in chase rate. It is also worth noting, he has a 27.9% K rate vs right handed batters this year and will see plenty of them today.
Milwaukee is a bit of a tough team to project. They have had stretches where they have the most K over 15 days, and then stretches where they did a great job preventing them. Regardless, they rank in the bottom 7 in K per game. They average 8.79 per game and have 28 K over their last 3 games.
The key here is their struggles vs LHP. For the season, they have the 4th highest K rate vs lefties, and they have climbed to number 1 over the last 30 days with a 28.4% K rate. This is a terrific matchup for Jeffery and a bet to get everyone through their work day. A win win, give me Springs over 5.5 K.
Rays vs. Brewers Prop Pick: Jeffery Springs over 5.5 strikeouts | +100 at DraftKings
