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The Rangers opened up the wallet in a crazy way this offseason, and brought in Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Jon Gray. The returns on all 3 were quite poor early in the season, but all have begun rounding into form over the last several weeks. Gray started his career with the Rangers with a 5.56 ERA through 7 starts.
His strikeout numbers were not impressive (less than 1 an innings) and he was getting hit hard, then came June. Gray started the new month off with a bang, striking out 12 Rays batters in 7 innings while giving up one run. Fast forward to today, Gray has lowered his ERA to 3.71, and his strikeout numbers have exploded. At the end of May, he had 32 K in 34 innings, since then he has 68 strikeouts in 55.2 innings.
Gray has now hit over 6.5 in 4 straight starts. He has climbed into very impressive percentiles despite his slow start. He currently sits in the 70th percentile in K per inning, 78th percentile in K rate, 62nd percentile in whiff rate, and 74th percentile in chase rate. He gets a chance to improve on those numbers this afternoon.
The Marlins average the 9th most K per game at 8.76. They were pretty cold going into the all star break with 30 K in their last 3 games, and had a 25.2% K rate over the last 15 days. They have a 23.7% K rate at home this season, and a 23.8% K rate during day games. They have the 5th highest whiff rate in the MLB this season.
One final aspect I like about this prop is Gray’s ability to strike out right handed batters. He has a 28.8% K rate vs righties which is important today. The Marlins have a very right handed heavy lineup and I anticipate 6 or 7 in today’s lineup.
Rangers vs. Marlins Player Prop Pick: Jon Gray over 6.5 strikeouts | -108 Fanduel Sportsbook
