MLB Preview Wednesday 9/11/24

Welcome to today’s MLB preview! We’ve got an exciting slate of games lined up, and this article will focus on breaking down each matchup from a pitching perspective. As always, we’ll go in-depth on the pitching matchups and how they impact the overall game.

Later today, we’ll dive deeper into the top hitters and stacks, but for now, let’s focus on what you need to know about the arms taking the mound.

Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates – 12:35 PM ET – PNC Park

Pitching Matchup: Jonathan Bermudez (LHP) vs. Bailey Falter (LHP)

Game Preview:
Jonathan Bermudez steps in for the Marlins, bringing a mix of potential and unpredictability. While he’s not a strikeout machine, his left-handed delivery could give Pittsburgh some trouble. The Pirates rank middle of the pack in wOBA against left-handed pitching (.307), so Bermudez’s success will hinge on limiting hard contact. If he can keep the ball in play and stay ahead in counts, he might avoid major damage.

Bailey Falter for Pittsburgh is in a similar boat. His 4.45 ERA and 17% strikeout rate show that he’s more of a contact pitcher. With a high fly ball rate and below-average ground ball rate, Falter could struggle against a Marlins lineup that hits lefties well (.319 wOBA). Miami may look to attack early if Falter can’t locate his off-speed stuff.

Overall Game Insight:
Both pitchers are serviceable but have flaws. Neither team boasts a powerhouse offense, but with two left-handed pitchers on the mound, hitters from both sides could have an opportunity to take advantage of mistakes. Expect a tight contest with runs potentially coming in bunches if either starter falters early.

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET – Guaranteed Rate Field

Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd (LHP) vs. Davis Martin (RHP)

Game Preview:
Matthew Boyd has been one of Cleveland’s most reliable arms, sporting a stellar 2.20 ERA and an impressive 24% strikeout rate. He’ll face a White Sox lineup that struggles against lefties, posting a meager .264 wOBA. Boyd’s ability to keep the ball in the park and limit hard contact will be key as the White Sox have a tendency to swing early and often.

On the other hand, Davis Martin faces a Guardians team that excels against right-handed pitchers (.331 wOBA). Martin’s 4.33 SIERA suggests he’s been walking a fine line between success and disaster, relying heavily on ground balls to escape jams. If Cleveland’s patient approach at the plate holds, Martin could find himself in trouble early.

Overall Game Insight:
Cleveland holds a distinct advantage in this matchup, especially with Boyd’s dominance on the mound. Unless the White Sox can capitalize on Boyd’s mistakes early, Cleveland should be in control. Expect Boyd to stifle Chicago’s offense, while the Guardians chip away at Martin.

New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays – 3:07 PM ET – Rogers Centre

Pitching Matchup: Sean Manaea (LHP) vs. Bowden Francis (RHP)

Game Preview:
Sean Manaea brings a solid 3.43 ERA into this one, with the ability to miss bats (25% strikeout rate). The challenge for him today is a Blue Jays lineup that has been strong against left-handed pitching (.326 wOBA). Manaea’s high fly ball rate (37%) could be an issue in a homer-friendly environment like Rogers Centre, making it crucial for him to keep the ball down and avoid walks.

Bowden Francis counters for Toronto, coming in with a respectable 3.72 ERA. However, Francis struggles to keep the ball on the ground, and against a Mets lineup that has a .338 wOBA versus righties, that could spell trouble. If Francis doesn’t attack the strike zone, the Mets could be poised for a big day at the plate.

Overall Game Insight:
Both teams are well-matched offensively, but the Mets have a slight edge thanks to their success against right-handers. Manaea will need to be sharp to navigate Toronto’s power-heavy lineup, but this game could go either way depending on which version of each pitcher shows up.

Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks – 3:40 PM ET – Chase Field

Pitching Matchup: Cody Bradford (LHP) vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP)

Game Preview:
Cody Bradford takes the ball for Texas, and he’s been quietly effective with a 3.05 ERA. However, Bradford’s pitch-to-contact style could be risky against a Diamondbacks lineup that boasts a .338 wOBA versus left-handed pitching. He’ll need to be precise in his pitch placement to avoid giving Arizona’s powerful hitters any easy chances.

Merrill Kelly has had a rocky season, posting a 4.08 ERA and a concerning 5.67 xERA. His low strikeout rate (19%) and tendency to give up hard contact (41%) make him vulnerable against a Rangers lineup that hits righties decently. If Kelly can’t keep the ball down, Texas could capitalize on his mistakes.

Overall Game Insight:
This game has the potential for a low-scoring affair, but both teams have the firepower to turn things around quickly if the pitchers aren’t sharp. Arizona’s lineup gives them a slight edge, but Texas could easily flip the script with a couple of big swings.

Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 PM ET – Citizens Bank Park

Pitching Matchup: Shane Baz (RHP) vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP)

Game Preview:
Shane Baz has shown flashes of his elite potential, but his 4.03 xERA suggests he’s been walking a tightrope. Facing a Phillies lineup that’s hitting right-handers well (.322 wOBA), Baz will need to avoid the free passes that have hurt him this season.

Zack Wheeler has been nothing short of dominant in 2024, with a 2.59 ERA and 28% strikeout rate. Wheeler’s ability to miss bats and induce ground balls (43% GB rate) makes him a nightmare matchup for a Rays team that has struggled against righties (.291 wOBA).

Overall Game Insight:
Wheeler is the clear ace here, and the Phillies are in a good spot to control this game. Baz’s inconsistency could open the door for Philadelphia to get an early lead, while Wheeler should be able to limit Tampa Bay’s offense effectively.

Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers – 6:40 PM ET – Comerica Park

Pitching Matchup: Tanner Gordon (RHP) vs. Casey Mize (RHP)

Game Preview:
Tanner Gordon has had a rough season for the Rockies, carrying an inflated 7.55 ERA and some equally troubling underlying metrics. His 18% strikeout rate isn’t enough to offset the amount of hard contact he’s allowing (33%), and his 4.35 SIERA shows he’s consistently putting himself in dangerous spots. Against a sneaky-good Tigers lineup with a .305 wOBA against right-handed pitching, Gordon could be in for a long day if he doesn’t find a way to keep the ball down and avoid barrels.

Casey Mize returns for Detroit after a tough 2024 campaign so far, with a 4.30 ERA and a low strikeout rate of 16%. Mize does rely on his ground ball rate (49%), which works to his advantage against a Rockies team that struggles away from Coors Field. However, Colorado’s .312 wOBA against right-handers means they aren’t completely inept at the plate, so Mize will need to execute his pitches to avoid any costly mistakes.

Overall Game Insight:
This game could go either way, with both pitchers being vulnerable to big innings. Detroit has the slight edge with Mize’s ground ball tendencies, but neither team’s lineup is a powerhouse. With two shaky starters, this could be a game where the bats decide the outcome, especially if either pitcher can’t find their command.

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals – 6:45 PM ET – Nationals Park

Pitching Matchup: Max Fried (LHP) vs. Jake Irvin (RHP)

Game Preview:
Max Fried continues to be one of the most reliable arms in Atlanta’s rotation, boasting a 3.35 ERA with a solid 23% strikeout rate. His ability to induce ground balls (59%) makes him especially tough to beat, and he’s held opposing hitters to a 25% hard contact rate. Washington has been inconsistent at the plate against left-handed pitching, posting a .311 wOBA, which plays into Fried’s favor. As long as he’s controlling the zone, Fried should have no trouble limiting the Nationals’ offense.

Jake Irvin will take the ball for Washington, and while his 4.28 ERA is respectable, he doesn’t possess the swing-and-miss stuff needed to dominate a team like the Braves. Atlanta is no stranger to hitting right-handers, posting a solid .307 wOBA. Irvin’s 21% strikeout rate and lack of overpowering secondary pitches could put him in a bind against a deep Braves lineup that can string together big innings quickly.

Overall Game Insight:
Fried holds a significant advantage in this matchup. Atlanta’s offense is far more potent than Washington’s, and Irvin is likely to face trouble keeping their hitters off balance. If Fried is on his game, the Braves should cruise to a win, with Washington’s best shot coming from a surprise offensive outburst.

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees – 7:05 PM ET – Yankee Stadium

Pitching Matchup: Cole Ragans (LHP) vs. Luis Gil (RHP)

Game Preview:
Cole Ragans has been a bright spot for the Royals in 2024, posting a 3.33 ERA with an impressive 30% strikeout rate. His ability to miss bats and limit hard contact (.285 xwOBA) gives him a chance to keep the Yankees’ powerful lineup in check. While New York has posted a solid .342 wOBA against left-handed pitching, Ragans’ strikeout potential could neutralize their top hitters, especially if he can avoid the long ball.

Luis Gil brings a 3.24 ERA into this matchup but has struggled with his control, walking 13% of batters faced. His underlying numbers, including a 4.18 SIERA, suggest that regression may be coming. Kansas City’s lineup isn’t a juggernaut, but with a .316 wOBA against right-handed pitching, they’re more than capable of taking advantage of Gil’s command issues if he isn’t sharp.

Overall Game Insight:
The Yankees are favored here, but Ragans gives Kansas City a fighting chance if he can continue his dominant form. Gil’s inconsistency could leave the door open for the Royals to push across some runs, but the Yankees’ offense is potent enough to overpower most mistakes. If Gil can keep his walks in check, New York should prevail, but Kansas City has a shot to make it interesting behind Ragans’ arm.

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins – 7:10 PM ET – Target Field

Pitching Matchup: Jack Kochanowicz (RHP) vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP)

Game Preview:
Jack Kochanowicz has struggled mightily in 2024, carrying a bloated 4.89 ERA with very little ability to miss bats (7% strikeout rate). His underlying metrics (6.09 xERA) suggest things could get even worse, especially against a Twins lineup that has hit right-handed pitching well (.323 wOBA). Kochanowicz will need to lean heavily on his ground ball rate (58%) to limit damage, but this is a tough spot for the young right-hander.

Zebby Matthews has also had a rough season, with a 7.36 ERA and a concerning 38% hard contact rate. His strikeout rate (21%) is serviceable, but he’ll need to be more efficient if he hopes to get deep into this game. The Angels’ offense hasn’t been elite against right-handers (.294 wOBA), but they have enough pop to make Matthews pay if he can’t locate his pitches.

Overall Game Insight:
Both pitchers have struggled this season, making this game a candidate for offensive fireworks. Minnesota holds the edge with their more consistent offense, but Matthews will need to be sharper than he’s been in recent outings. The Angels could make things interesting if they can take advantage of Matthews’ command issues, but the Twins are favored to come out on top.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox – 7:10 PM ET – Fenway Park

Pitching Matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP) vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP)

Game Preview:
Dean Kremer has been a steady arm for the Orioles with a 4.27 ERA, but his underlying metrics suggest he’s been a bit lucky (.335 xwOBA). Facing a Boston lineup that’s crushed right-handed pitching (.344 wOBA), Kremer will need to be precise with his location in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park. His 22% strikeout rate is decent, but with the Red Sox hitting so well at home, he’s in for a tough challenge.

Nick Pivetta, on the other hand, has been more of a boom-or-bust pitcher. His 29% strikeout rate is impressive, but his 4.38 ERA and tendency to allow hard contact (37%) make him a risk against a Baltimore lineup that has been solid against right-handers (.325 wOBA). If Pivetta can limit the damage from the Orioles’ power bats, he could have a strong outing, but he’s always one bad inning away from trouble.

Overall Game Insight:
This game has the potential for offensive fireworks, with both teams capable of putting up runs quickly. Boston’s lineup has the edge, but Pivetta’s inconsistency leaves the door open for Baltimore to keep it close. If both pitchers can limit walks and avoid the big inning, this could be a tight contest, but expect plenty of runs either way.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals – 7:45 PM ET – Busch Stadium

Pitching Matchup: Brandon Williamson (LHP) vs. Lance Lynn (RHP)

Game Preview:
Brandon Williamson has been solid for the Reds, posting a 2.25 ERA, but his peripherals (3.77 SIERA) suggest some regression could be on the horizon. His 19% strikeout rate doesn’t offer much upside, but his ability to induce ground balls (46%) and limit hard contact (41%) helps him avoid big innings. St. Louis has hit lefties decently (.314 wOBA), so Williamson will need to mix his pitches well to keep the Cardinals off balance.

Lance Lynn’s 4.06 ERA is deceiving, as his underlying numbers (4.91 xERA) show that he’s been walking a fine line. His 21% strikeout rate is solid, but his 9% walk rate and elevated hard contact rate (31%) make him vulnerable to big innings. The Reds’ lineup has been middle-of-the-road against right-handed pitching, with a .317 wOBA, but they could capitalize if Lynn struggles with his command.

Overall Game Insight:
Both pitchers are capable but flawed, making this a game that could go either way. St. Louis has the slight edge thanks to their ability to hit lefties, but Williamson’s ground ball tendencies could keep Cincinnati in the game. The outcome will likely hinge on which version of Lance Lynn shows up, as he has the potential to dominate or implode.

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros – 8:10 PM ET – Minute Maid Park

Pitching Matchup: Joey Estes (RHP) vs. Hunter Brown (RHP)

Game Preview:
Joey Estes has had a tough season, with a 4.46 ERA and a 4.86 xERA indicating that things could get even worse. His 19% strikeout rate and low ground ball rate (23%) make him vulnerable to a Houston lineup that has been mashing right-handed pitching (.328 wOBA). Estes will need to keep the ball down to avoid getting shelled, but this is a tough spot for the young right-hander.

Hunter Brown has been fantastic for Houston, posting a 3.41 ERA with strong underlying metrics, including a 25% strikeout rate. His ability to generate ground balls (48%) and limit hard contact (21%) makes him a tough matchup for an Oakland lineup that has struggled to hit right-handed pitching consistently (.319 wOBA). This is a prime spot for Brown to dominate and potentially go deep into the game.

Overall Game Insight:
This game is heavily tilted in favor of Houston, as Brown has a significant edge over Estes. The Astros’ lineup is far more dangerous, and Estes’ struggles with command and hard contact could lead to a lopsided affair. Expect Houston to control this game from start to finish.

San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners – 9:40 PM ET – T-Mobile Park

Pitching Matchup: Mike King (RHP) vs. Bryan Woo (RHP)

Game Preview:
Mike King has been a reliable arm for the Padres this season, posting a 3.10 ERA with a solid 28% strikeout rate. His ability to generate ground balls (41%) and limit hard contact makes him a tough matchup for a Mariners lineup that has posted a .304 wOBA against right-handers. King’s control (9% walk rate) will be key in keeping Seattle’s hitters off the basepaths in a pitcher-friendly park like T-Mobile.

Bryan Woo has been a bright spot for Seattle, with a 2.36 ERA and excellent underlying metrics (2.52 xERA, .250 xwOBA). Woo’s ability to miss bats and induce soft contact (20% strikeout rate) makes him a strong DFS play in this matchup, as the Padres have struggled against right-handed pitching with a .301 wOBA. If Woo can keep the walks in check, he should have a good outing.

Overall Game Insight:
This game is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with both pitchers capable of limiting damage. Seattle has the slight edge thanks to Woo’s consistency, but King is more than capable of keeping the Padres in the game. Expect a tight, low-scoring contest where both starters have the potential to shine.

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants – 9:45 PM ET – Oracle Park

Pitching Matchup: Colin Rea (RHP) vs. Blake Snell (LHP)

Game Preview:
Colin Rea has been inconsistent for the Brewers, with a 3.72 ERA and shaky underlying metrics (4.94 xERA). His 20% strikeout rate and 34% hard contact rate leave him vulnerable to a Giants lineup that has hit right-handed pitching well (.305 wOBA). Rea will need to navigate some dangerous lefty bats in the Giants’ order, and Oracle Park isn’t the easiest place for a pitcher with his profile to find success.

Blake Snell, on the other hand, has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. His 3.62 ERA is backed by elite metrics, including a 2.77 xERA and a 33% strikeout rate. The Brewers have been atrocious against left-handed pitching, with a dismal .259 wOBA, making this a prime spot for Snell to rack up strikeouts and potentially dominate from start to finish.

Overall Game Insight:
San Francisco holds a significant advantage with Snell on the mound, as he should be able to overpower Milwaukee’s weak lineup against lefties. Rea will have his hands full with a Giants lineup that can take advantage of his inconsistencies. Expect San Francisco to control this game, with Snell likely delivering a dominant performance.

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 PM ET – Dodger Stadium

Pitching Matchup: Jordan Wicks (LHP) vs. Bobby Miller (RHP)

Game Preview:
Jordan Wicks has been serviceable for the Cubs with a 4.03 ERA, but his underlying metrics suggest he’s been giving up more contact than ideal (.318 xwOBA). Wicks has struggled with walks (8% walk rate), and against a Dodgers lineup that crushes left-handed pitching (.336 wOBA), he could be in for a tough night if he can’t find the strike zone consistently.

Bobby Miller, meanwhile, has had a rough go of it in 2024 with a 7.79 ERA. Despite his immense potential, his 6.61 xERA and .388 xwOBA show that he’s been struggling with command and giving up hard contact. The Cubs have been decent against right-handers (.317 wOBA), so Miller will need to be sharp to avoid giving up big innings.

Overall Game Insight:
The Dodgers are favored in this matchup, but both pitchers have vulnerabilities that could lead to offensive production. If Miller can’t find his control, the Cubs could jump on him early, but Wicks will also have a hard time keeping the Dodgers’ bats in check. Expect a back-and-forth contest with the Dodgers holding a slight edge due to their powerful lineup.

Final Thoughts on Today’s MLB DFS Slate

Today’s slate features a wide range of pitching options, from elite arms like Blake Snell and Zack Wheeler to riskier plays like Joey Estes and Bobby Miller. Here are some key takeaways for your DFS lineup building:

• Target Elite Pitchers: Snell, Wheeler, and Hunter Brown are in great spots to dominate their matchups. These are the high-ceiling pitchers you want to anchor your lineups around.
• Fade Struggling Arms: Pitchers like Joey Estes, Colin Rea, and Tanner Gordon are vulnerable, and stacking against them could lead to big offensive outputs for opposing teams.
• Monitor Weather and Park Factors: Games in pitcher-friendly parks like Seattle and San Francisco are likely to be lower scoring, while hitter-friendly environments like Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium could see more offense.

Good luck with your lineups today! Be sure to check back later for our breakdown of top hitters and stacks for this slate.