MLB Best Bets Wednesday 9/11/24

Welcome to today’s MLB Best Bets breakdown! We’ve got a full slate of games lined up, and I’m here to help you navigate the matchups and identify the top plays to maximize your betting success.

Each bet is carefully analyzed based on team trends, player performance, and pitching matchups. Let’s dive in!

1. Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Bet: Pirates Moneyline

The Marlins have struggled on the road, and their offense ranks near the bottom of the league. With no confirmed starter and an unstable bullpen, it’s hard to trust them in this spot. Pirates pitcher Bailey Falter may not be elite, but against a team like Miami, he should do enough to keep them in the game. The Marlins are dead last in quality starts, and their road record is a concerning 26-43. Pirates get the edge here.

Key Insights:
- Marlins are 29th in runs scored and team batting average.
- Pirates bullpen has struggled, but Miami’s inconsistency gives the edge to Pittsburgh.

2. Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

Bet: Under 8 Total Runs

Matthew Boyd has been strong for the Guardians, and their bullpen ranks as the best in baseball. Meanwhile, the White Sox have been historically bad, especially on offense. Boyd should control the game, while the Guardians’ offense hasn’t exactly been on fire either. This game shapes up to be a low-scoring affair, especially with Chicago’s weak lineup.

Key Insights:
- Guardians’ bullpen has a league-best 2.80 ERA.
- White Sox rank dead last in runs scored and on-base percentage.

3. New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Bet: Mets Moneyline

The Mets have been on a roll with Sean Manaea on the mound, going 5-0 in his last five starts. Toronto’s Bowden Francis has been solid but against weaker competition. The Mets’ offense should take advantage of Toronto’s shaky bullpen, which has one of the worst ERAs in the league. Look for New York to squeak out a win behind Manaea’s steady pitching.

Key Insights:
- Mets’ offense ranks 9th in on-base percentage.
- Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks 27th in the league with a 4.76 ERA.

4. Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Bet: Over 8.5 Total Runs

Both the Rangers and Diamondbacks have shown tendencies to hit the over in their respective home/road splits. Cody Bradford has been decent, but the Diamondbacks boast one of the league’s top offenses. Meanwhile, the Rangers can take advantage of Arizona’s shaky bullpen, making the over a solid play in this spot.

Key Insights:
- Arizona ranks 2nd in team batting average and 1st in runs scored.
- Rangers’ bullpen has been inconsistent but improving.

5. Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins

Bet: Angels +180 Moneyline

Jack Konowitz has shown flashes of brilliance this season, and the Angels’ bullpen has quietly improved. The Twins have been cold offensively, struggling to score in key moments. This could be a high-value underdog play, as Minnesota’s pitcher, Zebie Matthews, has struggled in recent outings. If the Angels can get to him early, this upset has potential.

Key Insights:
- Konowitz has been impressive in flashes, with a decent ERA.
- Twins offense has slumped, failing to score in their last few series.

6. Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics

Bet: Under 8.5 Total Runs

Hunter Brown has emerged as a strong young arm for the Astros, and while Oakland’s Joey Estes has shown potential, the A’s offense is too inconsistent to put up big runs. The Astros’ bullpen has been dominant, and I don’t see Oakland doing much damage in this one. Expect a low-scoring affair with both starters controlling the tempo.

Key Insights:
- Astros bullpen ranks 4th in MLB with a 3.51 ERA.
- Oakland offense ranks 26th in runs scored and 25th in on-base percentage.

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