MLB Best Bets Tuesday 9/10/24

It’s a packed day for MLB action, and I’ve got some solid best bets for you to capitalize on. Based on the matchups and trends, these bets offer great value on today’s slate. Let’s dive into the key insights for each matchup and break down why these are the best bets today.

1. Philadelphia Phillies (-162) vs Tampa Bay Rays

Suggested Bet: Phillies ML (-162)

• Key Insight: Ranger Suárez has been on fire lately, coming off a dominant performance against the Marlins. His ability to control the game with solid strikeouts and limit walks is exactly what the Phillies need to shut down the struggling Rays’ offense. The Phillies have been strong at home (47-24) and should have no problem taking advantage of Taj Bradley‘s recent struggles on the mound.
• Why: The Rays’ offensive struggles continue, and against a pitcher of Suárez’s caliber, it’s hard to imagine them putting up enough runs to compete.

Bullet Points:

• Phillies 47-24 at home.
• Suárez dominant in his last start (5 IP, 0 ER).
• Rays’ offense ranks 28th in runs scored.

2. Miami Marlins (+126) vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Suggested Bet: Marlins ML (+126)

• Key Insight: The Pirates’ bullpen has been abysmal in the second half, ranking near the bottom of the league in ERA. Miami has struggled offensively, but this matchup against Pittsburgh’s shaky pitching staff gives them the edge. Despite Adam Oller’s inconsistency, the Marlins have a favorable chance to pull through in a close, low-scoring game.
• Why: The Pirates’ bullpen can’t be trusted, and Miami’s been able to pull out games against weaker pitching staffs.

Bullet Points:

• Pirates bullpen ERA: 4.66 (26th in MLB).
• Marlins at +126 offers good value against a team with pitching issues.
• Pirates 34-38 at home, showing inconsistency.

3. Atlanta Braves (-160) vs Washington Nationals

Suggested Bet: Under 8 Runs (-110)

• Key Insight: Both pitchers, Ronaldo Lopez and MacKenzie Gore, have been solid in their recent outings. Gore has previously held the Braves in check, while Lopez has had back-to-back quality starts. With both teams showing trends toward the under, this matchup looks like it will be a pitcher’s duel, keeping the scoring low.
• Why: Both starting pitchers are in good form, and the Braves’ recent offensive struggles support this play.

Bullet Points:

• Lopez: 6 IP, 1 ER vs Nationals in last meeting.
• Braves 38-31-4 to the under on the road.
• Gore with a dominant 6 IP, 1 ER in his last start.

4. Houston Astros (-184) vs Oakland Athletics

Suggested Bet: Under 8.5 Runs (-115)

• Key Insight: Houston’s bullpen has been one of the best in baseball, and they’ll likely get plenty of work today. On the other side, Luis Medina has shown flashes of brilliance, and the A’s have been struggling offensively, scoring just 1 run in back-to-back games. This game is shaping up to be a low-scoring affair with both teams likely relying heavily on their bullpens.
• Why: Houston’s bullpen will lock down Oakland’s already cold bats, and Medina can keep the Astros’ offense in check for most of the game.

Bullet Points:

• Houston bullpen ERA: 3.51 (Top 5 in MLB).
• A’s rank 26th in runs scored, struggling offensively.
• Astros scoring has been inconsistent, making under 8.5 a smart play.

5. New York Mets (-120) vs Toronto Blue Jays

Suggested Bet: Mets ML (-120)

• Key Insight: David Peterson has been lights out, and Toronto’s offense has been ice cold. Combine that with the fact that the Blue Jays have one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and the Mets should take advantage in the later innings. Peterson’s recent performances make this bet even more enticing.
• Why: The Mets have the pitching advantage and are playing against a Toronto team that has lost six of its last seven.

Bullet Points:

• Peterson’s ERA over his last five starts: 2.75.
• Blue Jays have lost 6 of their last 7 games.
• Toronto bullpen ERA: 4.79 (3rd worst in MLB).

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