MLB Best Bets Thursday 9/12/24

As we dive into today’s MLB slate, we’ve got some great matchups to target for betting value. Each game offers unique dynamics based on pitching matchups, recent team form, and offensive production.

I’ll break down the key insights for each pick, making sure to highlight why these spots are the best bets for today. Let’s get to it!

1. Detroit Tigers vs. Colorado Rockies

• Suggested Bet: Detroit Tigers First 5 Innings Run Line (-140)
• Key Insights:
  • Pitching Advantage: The Tigers are sending out lefty Tarik Skubal, who has been sharp recently, facing a Colorado team that struggles against left-handed pitching. Over the last 30 days, the Rockies have been near the bottom of the league with a .218 average and third-worst WRC+ against lefties.
  • Recent Form: The Tigers have won four straight games in this series, including an 11-0 blowout. Skubal should dominate early, which makes Detroit’s first 5 innings run line a strong play here.
  • Matchup Data: Detroit’s offense has been surprisingly decent against righties lately, while Colorado’s bats are ice-cold.

2. St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds

• Suggested Bet: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-130)
• Key Insights:
  • Pitchers in Form: Sonny Gray for the Cardinals has found his form again, with back-to-back strong outings, going at least 6 innings with only 1 earned run in each. He also sports a 31% K-rate against this Reds lineup.
  • Reds’ Inconsistent Offense: Cincinnati hasn’t been able to consistently produce runs lately, which makes this a good spot for a first 5 under. St. Louis, on the other hand, hasn’t been firing offensively, making it likely we see a low-scoring start to the game.
  • Matchup Insight: Both teams have struggled to hit quality pitching, and with Sonny Gray back on track, it’s hard to see either side breaking out early.

3. Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics

• Suggested Bet: Oakland Athletics Team Total Under 3.5 (-150)
• Key Insights:
  • Lefty Dominance: The A’s struggle even more against left-handed pitching, and they’ll face one of the best in the league in Framber Valdez. Valdez’s combination of curveballs and sinkers should keep the Athletics’ weak lineup in check.
  • Recent Results: Houston has dropped the last two games in this series, but Valdez gives them the best chance to bounce back, and he should be able to limit Oakland’s offense.
  • Pitching Mismatch: With Mitch Spence starting for the A’s, the Astros should have no trouble putting runs on the board, meaning we won’t need to worry about a high-scoring game from the A’s side.

4. Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins

• Suggested Bet: Washington Nationals Moneyline (-180)
• Key Insights:
  • Pitching Edge: Mitchell Parker has been solid at home and should be able to handle the Marlins, who’ve cooled off considerably after a hot series against the Phillies.
  • Miami’s Struggles: The Marlins are sending out a spot starter, and their offense hasn’t shown much spark recently. They’ve only won 4 of their last 10 games, and even those wins came in low-scoring affairs.
  • Washington’s Edge: While the Nationals are not a powerhouse, their offense has been slightly better, and with a superior pitcher on the mound, this moneyline looks like a strong play.

5. Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays

• Suggested Bet: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-140)
• Key Insights:
  • Pitching Battle: Gavin Williams may not be the flashiest pitcher, but his ability to mix fastballs and cutters should neutralize a Tampa Bay team that has struggled against those pitch types.
  • Momentum: The Guardians come into this series with a lot of confidence, having won 7 of their last 10 games. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, was just swept by the Phillies and is looking to find some consistency.
  • Guardians’ Bullpen: Cleveland boasts one of the best bullpens in baseball, which should help them lock things down late if the game is close.

Final Thoughts

There’s solid value on today’s MLB slate, especially with favorable pitching matchups that allow us to target first 5 inning bets and team totals. When you combine strong recent form and matchups against struggling lineups, these best bets should set you up for a profitable day.

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