MLB Best Bets Monday 9/9/24

Today’s MLB slate has some exciting matchups with strong betting opportunities. Whether you’re targeting a solid pitching duel or looking to ride a hot team, I’ve got you covered. I’ve taken the time to analyze the key matchups, break down the stats, and provide insight into the best bets for today.

Let’s dive in!

Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

• Suggested Bet: Under 7.5 Runs
• Why: With rookie sensation Paul Skenes pitching for the Pirates, expect a low-scoring game. He’s been dominant this season with a 2.13 ERA and showed his prowess again in his last outing, allowing no runs through 5 innings. The Marlins have struggled offensively, ranking 29th in the league in runs scored. While their bats have been slightly hotter recently, they remain one of the weakest offenses. On the road, Miami has consistently hit the under, going 40-27-1 to the under this season.Key Points:
  • Paul Skenes’ dominance: 9-2 record with a 2.13 ERA.
  • Marlins rank 29th in runs scored and on-base percentage.
  • Miami is 40-27-1 to the under on the road.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies

• Suggested Bet: Tampa Bay Rays +166
• Why: The Rays are undervalued here as underdogs. While the Phillies have a strong home record, Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been one of the best in the league, ranking 7th with a 3.71 ERA. The Rays’ offense has been inconsistent, but with Christopher Sanchez on the mound for the Phillies, who has been solid but not elite, I see value in Tampa Bay. They’ve been scrappy on the road and are facing a Phillies team that has been up and down offensively lately.Key Points:
  • Rays’ bullpen: 3.71 ERA (7th in MLB).
  • Phillies’ recent struggles on offense: Only 1 run scored in their last game.
  • Value in Tampa Bay as +166 underdogs.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves

• Suggested Bet: Braves -152
• Why: The Braves have a significant edge with Charlie Morton on the mound. He’s been strong recently, and the Braves’ bullpen has been lights-out with a 3.23 ERA (3rd best in MLB). Cincinnati’s offense has been inconsistent and has struggled against tougher pitching. The Reds’ bullpen has also started to slip, making it harder for them to compete against a Braves team that should capitalize on these weaknesses.Key Points:
  • Charlie Morton: 8-7 with a solid recent run.
  • Braves’ bullpen: 3.23 ERA, one of the best in the league.
  • Reds’ inconsistency at the plate and declining bullpen performance.

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees

• Suggested Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+115)
• Why: Carlos Rodón has been sharp recently, and Brady Singer has struggled, particularly against the Yankees. New York’s offense, which ranks 2nd in runs scored, should handle Kansas City’s pitching, especially with their bullpen ranking in the bottom third of the league. Given the disparity in overall talent, taking the Yankees to win by multiple runs offers great value at +115.Key Points:
  • Yankees’ offense: 2nd in MLB in runs scored.
  • Brady Singer’s struggles: 6 earned runs allowed in his last start vs. Yankees.
  • Kansas City’s bullpen: 4.43 ERA, one of the worst.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox

• Suggested Bet: Under 9.5 Runs
• Why: Both Cade Povich and Brian Bello have a good history against their opponents, and neither team’s offense has been lighting it up recently. The Orioles were shut out in their last game, and Boston’s offense has been inconsistent. With both bullpens being shaky, focusing on the under in the first five innings might be the safest approach, but the full game under also holds value.Key Points:
  • Orioles and Red Sox both struggling offensively.
  • Both starting pitchers have solid history against the opposition.
  • Orioles are the biggest over team on the road, but this pitching matchup favors the under.

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Good luck with your bets today!