MLB Best Bets Monday 9/16/24

It’s another full slate of MLB action today, and I’ve got some key bets to help you maximize your value. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just looking to get into the game, today’s matchups offer a range of opportunities.

Let’s dive into the best bets for the day, giving you detailed insights on why each play is worth considering.

1. Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians

• Suggested Bet: Under 7.5 Total Runs
• Analysis:
  • Pablo López is coming off a series of strong starts for the Twins. Even when his team struggled, he has consistently delivered solid performances. His ability to go deep into games gives Minnesota a steady hand on the mound.
  • Matthew Boyd has been just as reliable for Cleveland, allowing minimal earned runs over recent outings. Plus, the Guardians boast the best bullpen ERA in the majors at 2.70.
  • Both offenses have had recent struggles, with Cleveland relying on sporadic production from José Ramírez and others.
  • With two top-tier pitchers and shaky offenses, the under 7.5 looks very appealing.

2. Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets

• Suggested Bet: Under 7.5 Total Runs
• Analysis:
  • Jake Irvin has been inconsistent, but his last outing against Atlanta was impressive, allowing just two hits and one earned run over six innings.
  • The Mets, with Shawn Manaea on the mound, have been stellar with Manaea leading them to a 5-0 record in his last five starts. His consistency, combined with a Mets bullpen that’s stabilized, suggests a low-scoring affair.
  • With the Mets potentially missing Francisco Lindor due to back soreness, expect their offense to be hampered even more, making the under a smart play.

3. LA Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

• Suggested Bet: Braves -104 Moneyline
• Analysis:
  • Max Fried has been one of the more dependable arms for the Braves all season, and even though he had a rough start against Washington, his overall form is impressive.
  • The Dodgers’ offense has been hit or miss lately, scoring fewer runs than usual in recent games.
  • Atlanta’s bullpen is elite, and with the Braves dominating at home (42-31 record), this is a spot where I lean toward Atlanta as a slight favorite.

4. Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals

• Suggested Bet: Royals -1.5 Run Line
• Analysis:
  • Seth Lugo has been electric for the Royals, putting together dominant performances, including a lights-out start against the Yankees.
  • Casey Mize, on the other hand, has been shaky, and when he last faced the Royals in May, he was shelled, allowing six earned runs in just under two innings.
  • The Royals have been strong at home (45-30), and their offense should feast on a struggling Mize, making the run line a great value play.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

• Suggested Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 Run Line
• Analysis:
  • Merrill Kelly has been reliable for the Diamondbacks, and while he’s had some struggles against top-tier teams like the Dodgers, he’s performed well against lesser competition.
  • Antonio Senzatela is making his first start of the season after Tommy John surgery, and expecting him to shut down one of the best offenses in baseball is a tall order.
  • With the Rockies’ bullpen sporting the worst ERA in the league, the Diamondbacks should have no problem covering the spread at Coors Field.

6. Chicago Cubs vs. Oakland Athletics

• Suggested Bet: Cubs -1.5 Run Line
• Analysis:
  • The Cubs are at home and have been surging offensively, averaging over 6 runs per game in recent contests.
  • Joey Estes has been inconsistent for Oakland, and facing a Cubs lineup that’s heating up could spell trouble.
  • With the Cubs pushing for the postseason, expect them to be aggressive and take care of business against a struggling Athletics team. Look for them to win comfortably and cover the run line.

7. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

• Suggested Bet: Over 8 Total Runs
• Analysis:
  • Neither Ranger Suarez nor Aaron Ashby has been particularly dominant lately. Suarez gave up 12 hits in his last outing, and Ashby has been inconsistent as well.
  • Both teams are capable of big offensive outputs, with the Phillies still boasting one of the best lineups in baseball and the Brewers capable of putting up big numbers, as they showed with a 15-run outburst against Arizona.
  • Both teams have trended towards the over in recent games, and with this matchup, expect plenty of runs to be scored.

Final Thoughts:

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