Madison Bumgarner has come out to a deceptively bad start in Arizona. He hasn’t given up a ton of runs, but he’s getting hit well and it’s only a matter of time before those deep fly balls turn into home runs. Josiah Gray hasn’t been much better and will have to a tough front lineup. Even in losses, the Nationals have been putting up 3 runs/game minimum and typically a lot higher than that. If you need a lean, my gut call is the Nationals run line +140, but the numbers just aren’t strong enough to back it up. This over on the other hand is a very strong play.
Rockies vs Phillies Pick
Philadelphia Phillies (4-6) @ Colorado Rockies (6-3)
Didi Gregorius o1.5 Total Bases +120 at DraftKings
There’s a lot to like about this prop. Playing in Denver is typically good for hitters with the thinness of the air at elevation. Didi is also a play who’s due for a resurgence after hitting poorly last year. His whole career he’s made adjustments in the offseason to improve and you can see already how he’s handling things differently this year. He’ll have his share of at bats in this one and should match up well against Kuhl. Kuhl has struggled against lefties in his career, which should lend well to Didi, Harper and Schwarber, but the best value bet is on Didi.