Happy Friday everyone! I’m so excited for Week Zero of college football tomorrow, but first we have a great slip on Underdog Fantasy for tonight.
If you haven’t already signed up for Underdog, what are you doing? It’s by far my most profitable platform in terms of ROI.
I only started using Underdog in June, and I’m already up almost $20,000 with a 28.25% ROI. That means for EVERY $100 I risk on Underdog, I’ve been getting $128.25 back for a $28.25 profit.
I recently wrote about my strategy using the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer, so be sure to check it out here if you haven’t already.
When you sign up for Underdog, be sure to use promo code “ODDSJAM” for a first deposit match up to $100.
Let’s get into this slip:
Pick #1: Kodai Senga Over 2 Earned Runs Allowed
I found all these plays using the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer, but I like to double check them on one of OddsJam’s other tools.
For Senga, I headed to the OddsJam Screen. The screen is awesome because you can see the best odds offered across the market with one quick scan.
The rest of the market, like Caesars and DraftKings, clearly thinks that this total should be at 2.5 and not 2. Now, they do have the under slightly favored, but that’s ok.
Think about it, it’s pretty darn likely in the grand scheme of things that Senga gives up exactly two earned runs. If he does, we push our prop on Underdog and have a two-pick entry to sweat out while all the people with the over on Caesars and DraftKings are losers.
If he allows three or more, we obviously win, and the chances of that are much more likely than him allowing zero or no runs. Could it happen? Sure, but the sportsbook line is 2.5 for a reason and not 1.5.
Pick #2: Keelan Doss Under 35.5 Receiving Yards
I know I usually don’t bet on preseason player props, but this was just too good to pass up.
In the screenshot above, you can see that both Doss’s receiving yards are 9 yards higher on Underdog than on PrizePicks and ParlayPlay.
That’s a significant differential, and if you want to take one of those in a separate entry on those platforms and create a middle that would be a great strategy as well.
If he ends between 27 and 35 yards, both the under on Underdog AND the over on one of those two sites would win.
The third pick in the entry I went with was Azura Stevens under 6.5 rebounds. When I added those three to my bet slip on the Optimizer, the expected value percentage is nearly 12%, or an expected profit of $29.66 on my $250 stake.