It’s another great day for baseball and @ryanpropz is here to share the top player prop pick he’s locking in ahead of today’s slate!
Read on to find the betting pick our MLB expert is recommending today.
Best Dodgers vs. Reds MLB Player Props
Los Angeles Dodgers (41-25) @ Cincinnati Reds (23-44)
6:40 p.m. ET
What a gorgeous day at Great American Ball. It will be about 90 degrees when the first pitch is thrown with winds blowing to right-center field at around 12 mph.
It should be a day full of runs, home runs and — hopefully — not many strikeouts.
Luis Castillo has put together a solid season so far in 2022 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, but faces one of his toughest challenges yet. He has been worse at home with a 4.50 ERA and will see the Dodgers tonight.
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The Dodgers’ juggernaut offense has not disappointed this season as they average the second-most runs per game, have the ninth-best batting average, second-best on-base percentage and fourth-best slugging.
Castillo will have his hands full trying to contain this offense on such a beautiful day.
Castillo has been a good strikeout pitcher most of his career, but has been a little closer to average this year. He is in the 38th percentile in K per inning, 42nd percentile in swinging strike percentage and 53rd percentile in K rate.
While none of those numbers are bad, they show a bit of regression from what we normally see from Castillo.
The Dodgers offense is obviously lethal, but they also do not strike out very often. They have a 20.6% K rate vs. righties and a 21.2% K rate on the road. They have the eighth-fewest Ks in the league over the last 15 days and last 30 days.
Of the last 25 starting pitchers that have faced the Dodgers, only eight have gone over the 5.5 line. Starters have averaged 4.88 K per start in that span vs. Los Angeles.
One final advantage I like is Castillo gets the majority of his Ks against righties (25.9% K rate vs. righties; 20.2% K rate vs. lefties). The Dodgers often start as many as five lefties in their lineup, and I am sure will look to do that again this evening.
In addition, the right-handers he will see are tough to send down on strikes, excluding Chris Taylor:
Trea Turner 19.9% K rate vs. RHP
Will Smith 17.3% K rate vs. RHP
Justin Turner 14.9% K rate vs. RHP
Dodgers vs. Reds Player Prop Pick: Luis Castillo Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -135 at DraftKings
