Ready to lock in your bets for today’s MLB slate? Our MLB expert @RBsSportsPlays has you covered with his favorite pick of the day.
9:41 p.m. ET
Apologies to my East Coasters again, we are staying up late. While low strikeout unders are not a common play from me, this one had a bit too much to like to resist it.
Miles Mikolas has been doing this a while. The 33 year old is in his 7th pro season. He has had a nice career, solid 3.76 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. One thing that has remained a constant, he does not miss many bats.
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He has 497 K in 670 innings in his career and 114 in 149.1 innings this season. He is in the 15th percentile in K per inning, 14th in swinging strike percentage, 25th percentile in K rate, 33rd percentile in chase rate, and the 6th percentile in whiff rate.
On the road, Miles has even more trouble racking up strikeouts. At home his K rate is 20.6%, it drops to 17.4% in away games. He tends to get hit around much more as well with a 4.59 away ERA compared to his 2.45 home ERA. In away games, opponents hit .273 vs him and .198 in home games.
Arizona has been a really interesting team to track this season for strikeouts. They were one of the league’s worst to start the year, but they have made progress and maintained it. Oddly enough, they are now one of the toughest teams to strike out.
They have the 12 best K rate vs RHP for the season, and the 2nd best over the last 30 days. 9 of the last 15 RHP went under their line against Arizona. One more significant factor are the DBacks home/road splits:
Home K rate: 21.3%
Away K rate: 24.0%
Home K per game: 7.57
Away K per game: 8.93
I actually faded the DBacks offense earlier in the week in a road game, and now I will put my trust in them at home versus a contact pitcher. I like them to hold Mikolas to less than five strikeouts.
