This is only my second time targeting this market in an article. The last time was Marco Gonzales against the Yanks and it hit with ease — I have hopes that this play can do the same.
There is some straightforward analysis on walk props. You can only point to so many stats, but I will try to cover all of them. Firstly, Dane Dunning is in the 29th percentile in BB% at 9.2. While his walk rate at home is slightly better (8.4% vs. 10.0%), it is still plenty high enough to warrant a play here.
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He is over in 14 of 22 this season overall, good for 64% and seven of his last 10. He has thrown 100+ pitches in back-to-back games so he will get ample opportunity to send some batters to first. Dunning also tends to struggle during the day. He only has 24 BB in 78.1 innings at night but has 23 in 39.2 innings during the day.
Oakland has some underwhelming season-long numbers, however, there is a lot to like recently. They have the ninth-most walks over the last 30 days, averaging 3.32 per game in that span.
They have 15 walks in their last three games combined. They have the second-highest walk rate against RHP in the last 30 days. At the time of writing, their lineup is not released but when we look at the BB% over the last 30 days of some of the guys I anticipate starting, it makes me love this play:
Stevenson 29.4 BB% in 17 PA
Kemp 10.6 BB in 66 PA
Murphy 13.0 BB% in 69 PA
Brown 11.9 BB% in 59 PA
Bride 9.8 BB% in 41 PA
Bolt 9.8 BB% in 41 PA
Machin 13.8 BB% in 58 PA
Allen 9.5 BB% in 42 PA
With Dunning’s control struggles during the day and Oakland’s impressive (yet sudden) plate discipline, I love this play. Hoping for a sweat-free winner here.
Athletics vs. Rangers Pick: Dane Dunning Over 1.5 Walks | +100 at DraftKings