2022 Mexico Open Betting Preview, Odds, Picks & Predictions

<p>AP Photos</p>

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Ben SchaferApril 28, 2022, 02:35 PM

Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele gave new meaning to the Big Easy in New Orleans last weekend. The pair dominated the Zurich Classic, finishing two strokes ahead of runners up Sam Burns and Billy Horschel. An incredible first-round 59 led the way for the duo’s wire-to-wire and record-setting (-27) finish.

This week, we are headed south of the border to Vallarta, Mexico for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. This will be the debut for the Mexico Open on the PGA tour.

2022 Mexico Open

  • Dates: April 28-May 1, 2022
  • Course: Vidanta Vallarta in Vallarta, Mexico
  • Purse: $7.3 million
  • Defending Champ: First year on the PGA Tour

The Mexico Open at Vidanta is the second and final stop in Mexico for the PGA Tour this season. While it is the first time it has been featured on the PGA Tour schedule, it has been played since 1944 and is considered Mexico’s national tournament. As such, the event has attracted a record number of Mexican players in the field vying for their country’s glory.

What Course Is The Mexico Open Held At?

The Norman Signature Course at Vidanta is located on the western coast of Mexico with Sierra Madre mountains looming large in the distance. Opened in 2016 and designed by the Shark himself, Greg Norman; the course features 55 bunkers and plenty of water hazards with the Ameca River winding through it.

With larger landing areas off the tee the rolling greens will provide little room for error and are often surrounded by deep bunkers on approach shots. Distance will also be a factor with the course topping off at 7,456, including two par 5s measuring 600+.

How To Watch The Mexico Open

  • Thursday: 3:30-6:30 p.m. ET Golf Channel, 8:45-6:30 p.m. ET ESPN+
  • Friday: 3:30-6:30 p.m. ET Golf Channel, 8:45-6:30 p.m. ET ESPN+
  • Saturday: 1-3 p.m. ET Golf Channel, 8:30-6:00 p.m. ET ESPN+, 3-6 p.m. ET CBS
  • Sunday: 1-3 p.m. ET Golf Channel, 8:30-6:00 PM ESPN+, 3-6 p.m. ET CBS

How To Listen To The Mexico Open

  • Thursday-Friday, 1–6:30 p.m. ET Sirius XM
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1–6 p.m. ET Sirius XM

Mexico Open Field & Betting Odds

Compared to what we have become accustomed to in recent weeks, the field is lacking in world golf players ranking in the top 10 with only one: Jon Rahm.

Rahm is a massive favorite heading into Thursday’s play. While there may not be many in the top 10, the field is hardly lacking in talent and storylines. Rahm, Abraham Ancer and Tony Finau round out three players in the top 25 that also includes past major winners Partick Reed, Gary Woodland and Graeme McDowell.

A record 10 Mexican players will be in the field playing in front of a home crowd, including brothers Carlos and Alvaro Ortiz. Ancer is the favorite among the group, though all will be playing with a little extra heart, knowing it is for their homeland’s adoration.

GolferOdds
Jon Rahm+450
Abraham Ancer+1700
Gary Woodland+2000
Tony Finau+2000
Kevin Na+2500
Aaron Wise+3000
Cameron Champ+3000
Cameron Tringale+3000
Patrick Reed+3000
Sebastian Munoz+3000
Chris Kirk+3500
Aaron Rai+5000
Adam Long+5000
Brendon Todd+5000
Charles Howell III+5000
Doug Ghim+5000
Kevin Streelman+5000
Matt Jones+5000
Russell Knox+5000
Carlos Ortiz+6000
Cheng-Tsung Pan+6000
Davis Riley+6000
Mark Hubbard+6000
Sahith Theegala+6000
Alex Smalley+6600
Lanto Griffin+6600
Taylor Moore+6600
Anirban Lahiri+7000
Chad Ramey+7000
Scott Stallings+7000
David Lipsky+8000
JT Poston+8000
Pat Perez+8000
Patrick Rodgers+8000
Wyndham Clark+8000
Greyson Sigg+9000
Kramer Hickok+9000
Nate Lashley+9000
Tyler Duncan+9000
Adam Svensson+10000
Austin Smotherman+10000
Brandon Wu+10000
Brian Stuard+10000
Chase Seiffert+10000
Hank Lebioda+10000
Joseph Bramlett+10000
Michael Thompson+10000
Nick Taylor+10000
Scott Piercy+10000
Vaughn Taylor+10000
Vincent Whaley+10000
Adam Schenk+12500
Andrew D. Putnam+12500
Brice Garnett+12500
Danny Lee+12500
Dylan Wu+12500
Emiliano Grillo+12500
Graeme McDowell+12500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+12500
Peter Uihlein+12500
Rafael Cabrera Bello+12500
Robert Streb+12500
Ryan Armour+12500
Andrew Novak+15000
Ben Griffin+15000
Ben Martin+15000
Callum Tarren+15000
Chez Reavie+15000
James Hahn+15000
John Huh+15000
Justin Lower+15000
Kurt Kitayama+15000
Lee Hodges+15000
Matt Wallace+15000
Peter Malnati+15000
Roger Sloan+15000
Trey Mullinax+15000
Aaron Baddeley+20000
Bill Haas+20000
Bo Hoag+20000
Camilo Villegas+20000
Hayden Buckley+20000
Jason Dufner+20000
Kevin Tway+20000
Luke Donald+20000
Patrick Flavin+20000
Stephan Jaeger+20000
Ben Kohles+25000
Brandon Hagy+25000
Curtis Thompson+25000
Paul Barjon+25000
Richy Werenski+25000
Satoshi Kodaira+25000
Scott Brown+25000
Scott Gutschewski+25000
Seung-yul Noh+25000
Sung Kang+25000
Wesley Bryan+25000
Bryson Nimmer+30000
David Skinns+30000
Fabian Gomez+30000
Jared Wolfe+30000
Jonathan Byrd+30000
Max McGreevy+30000
Seth Reeves+30000
Austin Cook+35000
Michael Gligic+35000
Ryan Blaum+35000
Brett Drewitt+40000
David Hearn+40000
David Lingmerth+40000
Grayson Murray+40000
Joshua Creel’+40000
Robert Garrigus+40000
Roberto Diaz+40000
Sang-Moon Bae+40000
Tommy Gainey+40000
Alvaro Ortiz+50000
Armando Favela+50000
Ben Crane+50000
Ben Willman+50000
Bo Van Pelt+50000
D.J. Trahan+50000
Darren Andrew Points+50000
Dawie Van Der Walt+50000
Greg Chalmers+50000
Isidro Benitez+50000
Jeffrey Kang+50000
Jim Knous+50000
Johnson Wagner+50000
Jonas Blixt+50000
Juan Cristobal Islas+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Manuel Inman+50000
Mark Hensby+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Matt Every+50000
Ricky Barnes+50000
Santiago de la Fuente+50000
Turk Pettit+50000
Arjun Atwal+50000
Derek Ernst+50000
Richard S. Johnson+50000
Odds via PointsBet

Mexico Open Picks & Predictions

Vidanta Vallarta is a Greg Norman design that is very long and wide, just shy of 7,500 yards. The long bombers will be at a big advantage this week, especially those who can carry the ball 300+ yards in the air because there won’t be much roll on these fairways.

It will also be important to be accurate on the approach because the majority of the greens are guarded by tough bunkers. Hitting into the sand could result in a tough up-and-downs so it will be essential to be able to save par out of the bunkers.

This week the key metrics that our model is using to compile our portfolio are driving distance, strokes gained on the approach and sand save percentage.

We typically incorporate course history, but this is the first event at Vidanta. Without past performances to use in our handicaps, we will be focusing on the core metrics that we have identified as most important this week for this course.

Mexico Open Outright Winner Picks

Gary Woodland | +2200 at BetMGM

Gary Woodland is our model’s top choice to win this week and his game fits all of the key metrics we are looking for out of an outright winner her. We feel this a very fair number at 22-1 odds. Woodland is No. 1 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 25 rounds and averages 311.8 yards off the tee. Woodland actually rates out as the top player in the field when you combine driving distance and approach play. His sand save percentage leaves a little to be desired at a middling No. 85, but his iron game is good enough that he should be able to avoid the treacherous bunkers on the majority of his approaches.

Woodland also comes in great form. Outside of missing the cut at the Masters in his last start — a course that does not suit his game at all — he finished with three straight top-10 finishes in his last five starts, including two appearances in the top 5. As long as he is even average with the flat stick, we expect Woodland to be right in contention on Sunday in one of the final pairings.

Kevin Na | +3000 at BetMGM

Kevin Na’s stats don’t necessarily reflect it, but he has been playing incredibly consistent golf this season. In his six stroke play tournaments this year, he has only missed two cuts and has three top 20 finishes, including a T-14 at the Masters. There are questions around why a player of his caliber is playing in this tournament with a weak field, especially since he has been known to come up small in tournaments with weak fields (where both of his cuts came this year). But as long as he comes in focused, the model loves his chances to contend.

Sebastian Munoz | +3300 at BetMGM

Abraham Ancer is getting a ton of market love with this tournament played in his native country, but we prefer another South American this week in Sebastian Munoz. Munoz is an extremely streaky player but when he is on, he can play as well as anyone on Tour. In fact, at the RSM Classic back in November, he shot an opening round of 60 — the lowest posted score by any golfer this season. He has only missed one cut since the RSM, while posting two top-10 finishes during that span. Munoz has hit 67% of greens in regulation this season, which is going to be vital this week in avoiding the many greenside bunkers. Munoz has lost strokes putting in 13 of his last 15 events, which is concerning, but our model likes him here.

Cameron Champ | +4500 at DraftKings

We touched on driving distance being key this week and no one on Tour hits it longer than Cameron Champ, who averages a whopping 321.1 yards off the tee. Champ has been a favorite of ours since his huge 100-1 outright win at the 3M Open last year. This season hasn’t been nearly as kind to him, missing two of his last three cuts, but he did finally have a breakthrough with a very impressive top-10 finish at the Masters in his last start.

Like Munoz, Champ is a streaky player and he had a very similar trajectory last year before getting his first win of the season. He missed four straight cuts then followed that up with a top 10 at the John Deere and two weeks later got the outright win at the aforementioned 3M. He’s in a very similar position this year, having missed two cuts then placing top 10 at the Masters. His driving distance alone should set him up for a top-20 finish and if he can get hot with his putter — which he has shown the ability to in the past — then there’s a good chance history may repeat itself. 

Mexico Oepn Top 10 Picks

Mexico Open Top 20 Picks

Mexico Open Past Winners

This is the first year the Mexico Open is featured on the PGA Tour so we do not have any past winners.

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